ANALYSIS:The Cork TD is the front-runner but other candidates will do well
FORMER MINISTER for foreign affairs Micheál Martin is the favourite to win the contest for the leadership of Fianna Fáil but party sources warned last night that the other candidates should not be taken for granted.
“There won’t be a lot in it,” said one senior party source, “but Micheál Martin will probably get it.”
Pointing out that Martin had publicly opposed Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s motion of confidence in himself as leader, a Fianna Fáil source said: “He was first out of the traps and he seized the initiative.”
Nevertheless a feeling remains among some Fianna Fáil deputies that having a leader based in Dublin would be a very important asset in the context of a general election.
Party insiders said this factor could play in favour of Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan and Minister for Tourism, Culture and Sport Mary Hanafin. Others say Minister for Social Protection Éamon Ó Cuív is the right person to rebuild the party at grassroots level.
All four candidates are regarded as serious and hard-working politicians by their party colleagues. Lenihan is respected among Fianna Fáil deputies for his work as Minister for Finance and for the firm hand, as they see it, that he has exercised over the management of the State’s finances.
However, it is generally conceded that Lenihan damaged his chances of the leadership when he gave an interview to Seán O'Rourke on RTÉ's News at Onewhere he expressed support for the Taoiseach's motion of confidence.
That was openly criticised at the time by prominent Cowen opponent John McGuinness of Carlow-Kilkenny. Kildare
deputy Seán Power also expressed shock and surprise at the idea of Lenihan backing the Taoiseach.
Party sources said last night that Lenihan had disregarded friendly advice to “keep his own counsel” and avoid getting into discussions, however informal, of the party leadership in recent months with critics of Cowen.
Ó Cuív is expected to win support among deputies from constituencies along the Border and in the west. He is also expected to get votes from a rump of TDs, largely based in the midlands, who were close to Brian Cowen.
Supporters of the Ó Cuív candidacy are hoping he might come through the middle as Jack Lynch did in the race with Charles Haughey and George Colley.
In addition, they believe that those voting Lenihan No 1 would not be voting Martin No 2.
Lenihan was said to be “very encouraged” by the response from deputies he has canvassed although he is “very respectful of the fact that many of them don’t want to declare their intentions”.
“He is giving them time to think about it and reflect on it. He went into this because he felt he had something to offer,” said a source close to him.
Deputies are said to be surprised that the leadership vote is going to be held under the system of proportional representation.
Meanwhile, if a timetable is agreed between Lenihan and the other parties on the Finance Bill, it is seen as highly unlikely that any Fianna Fáil deputies would decline to go along with it, particularly since they supported the Budget last December.
