Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said he will need reassurance from Micheál Martin that the Fianna Fáil leader would order some of his TDs to support the Government in confidence votes, rather than abstaining, if the two leaders are to agree an election date.
Mr Varadkar on Friday said he would meet with Mr Martin in the New Year to discuss an extension of the confidence and supply agreement. The deal committed Fianna Fáil to abstaining on motions of confidence and budget votes, which would give the Fine Gael-led administration a Dáil majority on such occasions.
Speaking to political correspondents on Friday, Mr Varadkar said the Dáil arithmetic is tighter now than it was 3½ years ago when the confidence and supply agreement was first struck.
The Government’s Dáil strength now stands at 53, out of a total of 158 TDs. The confidence and supply deal sees Fianna Fáil’s 45 TDs abstain on budget and confidence votes and the Ceann Comhairle only uses his casting vote in the event of a tie.
Fianna Fáil’s John McGuinness says he will no longer abstain on confidence motions and will vote against the Government, meaning the Government is facing a 56-56 tie if a no confidence motion is put down against a minister or the Government itself in the New Year.
A 56-56 tie also envisages Independents Denis Naughten, Noel Grealish and Michael Lowry again supporting the Government, as they did in a motion of confidence in Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy in recent weeks.
Dáil strength
Speaking to political correspondents, Mr Varadkar said he needs to be sure of his Dáil strength if he is to agree an election date with Mr Martin, who favours going to the polls in April.
“I need to ensure that we continue to have the support of about nine Independents, some ministers, some not, who generally vote with the Government,” the Taoiseach said.
"So I'll need to speak to them and reaffirm our support for any arrangement we might come do between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. In respect to them, I'll need to talk to them in the New Year about that and whether they are willing to sign up to this.
“And of course Fianna Fáil has a problem too. Internally there are members of Fianna Fáil who have said they won’t support this approach and will vote against the Government in any future confidence motion so I would need the assurance from Micheál Martin that he actually has the support of his party for this and if he is going to have dissidents in his party that go against the whip, that he will be able to provide people who counterbalance that by voting with us on motions rather than abstaining.”
Mr Varadkar said were an arrangement to be reached, he would need to know that Mr Martin “actually has the support of all of his party for it”.
“I know if I come to an agreement on extending confidence and supply through to April or May, I’m confident I will have unanimous support from my parliamentary party for that,” he added.
“Given what has been said by John McGuinness, and there may be others, it is reasonable for us to say that we don’t know that Fianna Fáil is united behind their leader on this issue and we would need to know that.
“There is no point in coming up to an agreement with Fianna Fáil only to find that there is a breakdown within Fianna Fáil and they can’t honour their side of it.”