Pubs, hotels and restaurants can reopen from July 3rd in Northern Ireland, it was announced on Monday as the Northern Executive accelerated the graduated move out of lockdown.
In a major relaxation of the coronavirus restrictions the Executive also agreed that from Friday week, June 26th, caravan parks, camping sites, self-catering tourist accommodation and holiday homes can re-open.
Previously the target date for these moves was July 20th.
The lockdown easings were detailed by First Minister Arlene Foster, Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill and Economy Minister Diane Dodds on a day when no coronavirus deaths were recorded in the North.
This was the sixth time in the past nine days that zero deaths were reported by the North's Department of Health, leaving the death rate at 541.
The Department also reported four new cases of Covid-19 in Northern Ireland, taking the total number of confirmed cases to 4,852. So far 66,053 people have been tested for the virus in the North.
Public houses and bars will be permitted to reopen from July 3rd to sell food and alcohol on a table service basis. Pubs with outside spaces, such as beer gardens, will be able to use these spaces to serve alcohol with table service.
These relaxations also apply to hotel restaurants, bars and outdoor areas. However, spas and leisure facilities at hotels will not be permitted to open at this stage. Visitor attractions can open from July 3rd.
Ms Foster said while Northern Ireland was “in a better place today” there was no room for complacency.
Separately this was reflected in a warning by scientists that any second or subsequent waves of coronavirus in the North have the potential to be “significantly worse” than the current outbreak.
The North’s Department of Health published its scientific data which shows that the R rate of infection is between 0.5 and 0.9.
Current plans to continue easing the lockdown in the North hinge on the R rate remaining below one.
The number of individuals in Northern Ireland who are currently infected with Covid-19 is estimated at between 300 and 2,000, which equates approximately to between one person in 950 and one in 6,300, according to the scientific evidence from the health department.
“The large range for numbers infected in mainly due to uncertainty about the percentage of patients with Covid who are asymptomatic,” the department explained in a statement.
It added that preliminary results from studies indicated that less than 5 per cent of the population have recovered from coronavirus and have detectable antibodies.
“This means that over 95 per cent of the population remain susceptible to Covid-19 and that any subsequent waves of the epidemic have the potential to be significantly worse than wave one,” the scientists warned.
They also stressed that their modelling cannot predict what will happen in relation to the epidemic beyond the next two to three weeks. They added, however, that modelling was useful “to illustrate what might happen in different scenarios”.
Close to the outbreak of the pandemic the R rate in Northern Ireland was approximately 2.8.
The scientists said that “if R rose to 1.5, the epidemic would peak in early October with close to 800 patients requiring ICU support”.
“If R rose to 1.3, the epidemic would peak in early December with just over 300 patients requiring ICU support,” they added.
“In either of these scenarios, deaths would be much greater than in wave one of the epidemic,” they warned.
The health department statement added that if R rose to 1.2, the epidemic would still be increasing at the end of 2020 and over 100 virus patients would be in critical care.
Based on the R 1.2 modelling the scientists also painted a scenario where a second wave – “much worse than the first – would peak in early 2021”.
