Transport emissions in the State must fall 50 per cent by 2030 under the Government’s climate action plan, even though the population is expected to rise by nearly a million over the next two decades.
The starting line for transport emissions – excluding aviation – is 12.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Under Thursday’s plan this figure must fall to between six million tonnes and seven million tonnes in by the end of the decade.
That plan’s main provisions for achieving that goal is through a massive move to electric-powered vehicles and an equally enormous shift away from private transport to other forms, including public transport, e-bikes and e-scooters, cycling, transport sharing and good old-fashioned shank’s mare (walking).
If the plan’s 72 actions on transport are realised it will essentially mean that diesel and petrol cars will be in the dinosaur category by 2030.
A central ambition of the plan is that people will be substantially weaned off private-car transport. By then, 500,000 more journeys each day will be taken on sustainable transport – either on public, by bike, scooter and foot. That measure alone would lead to a 14 per cent reduction in emissions in the sector. The intermediate target is 125,000 new non-car journeys by 2025. It seems very ambitious. Even though a lot of money will be thrown at public transport (including €360 million per year at cycling and walking infrastructure) it’s doubtful much of the infrastructure will be in place by then.
What about public transport?
The second big move will be towards electrification and electric vehicles (EVs). The plan sets actions that will result in 845,000 private EVs on the roads by 2030 and 95,000 electric vans. In addition 1,500 buses will be electric and substantial parts of the rail network will also be electrified. The headline figures are impressive but as commentators, including our own motoring editor Michael McAleer, have consistently pointed out, achieving it will be difficult if not impossible. At present there are 45,000 EVs on Irish roads. While there has been an increase in uptake over the past two years, that momentum needs to accelerate rapidly it we are to come close to achieving the target.
The plan acknowledges the big barriers including the high price of EVs, range anxiety as well as concern over an inadequate network of recharging points. An office of low-emitting vehicles will be established and act as a one-stop shop for prospective owners. Without noting specific measures to address the barriers, the plan expresses confidence they will be overcome. At present there is a €5,000 grant towards the purchase of EVs by private motorists. The plan envisages that the price of EVs will fall and become more competitive (on price grounds) with conventional petrol or diesel cars.
For fossil-fuel powered private cars the landscape into the future looks bleak. Road space will be reallocated to sustainable transport modes. BusConnects will eat up road space also. Lower speed limits will be introduced to reduce fuel consumption. There will also be less parking spaces as well as an increase in car-parking charges. We may see the introduction of an Irish form of congestion charge, with promises for low-emission zones as well as the employment of a new road-pricing scheme.
A technical solution that will give rapid results is the increase in the proportion of biofuel in petrol and diesel. It will rise to 10 per cent from 5 per cent.
There are references also to other emerging technologies, particularly hydrogen. That is still in development but if it proves successful, it will be a game-changer, especially for heavy goods vehicles as well as buses.
