Taoiseach Enda Kenny and British prime minister David Cameron will spend two days in Northern Ireland this week to try to propel the five main Northern parties to a pre-Christmas political deal.
In turn, the North's two key political players, Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness, have made clear that if there is to be any prospect of agreement, then both leaders – but particularly Mr Cameron – must bring some financial largesse with them.
“The prime minister, I expect, will come along to push and to shove to try and get people over the line,” said Mr Robinson, the First Minister, ahead of negotiations.
“I think when he does that, he might well find that there will be people pushing and shoving him to get him over the line on certain issues as well.”
Mr McGuinness, who is Deputy First Minister, added: “We are going into important talks over the next couple of days. We are speaking with a united voice in relation to the need for David Cameron to recognise that, when he comes here, he does not come as someone who is facilitating talks, but as a player in the talks and one with a particular contribution to make.”
Guarded optimism
There are conflicting views at Stormont about the possibility of a reasonably comprehensive agreement when Mr Kenny and Mr Cameron engage in negotiations on Thursday and Friday.
The most guardedly optimistic noises are coming from the DUP and Sinn Féin.
In recent weeks, several papers have been exchanged on a range of issues, such as the past and reducing the size of the Northern Executive and Assembly.
Between the DUP and Sinn Féin, there appears to be developing consensus that a financial deal will be pivotal to any chance of the negotiations succeeding.
Sinn Féin, in particular, has opposed welfare reform, but both it and the DUP, as well as the other parties, strongly argue that British government-imposed budget cuts of £1.5 billion (€1.9 billion) up to 2019 will severely damage public jobs and public services.
Soften cuts
Sources say a critical element of the talks will be Mr Robinson and Mr McGuinness seeking financial commitments from the prime minister that would soften the effects of these cuts.
Mr Kenny is also likely to be “encouraged” to examine whether the Government can assist financially in any way, notwithstanding austerity measures in the South.
Other sources, however, were sceptical about an all-embracing deal being achieved on matters such as the so-called Haass issues of the past, parades and flags.
“Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness and David Cameron and Enda Kenny might cobble together some form of a deal, but it will only be a sticking plaster deal,” said one senior SDLP source.
Nonetheless, in separate comments at Stormont, Mr Robinson and Mr McGuinness envisaged potential for success. The First Minister said some progress was being made between the DUP and Sinn Féin on welfare reform and on financial matters generally.
“We have had more useful discussions over the last few days with Sinn Féin on these issues than we have had heretofore,” he said. He hoped Thursday and Friday would be a real “deadline”, allowing that there could be some slippage into next week.
The Northern parties also have the carrot of corporation tax-setting powers if a deal is done.
Last week, British chancellor George Osborne said he would devolve such powers if the political parties could strike a deal.
