The activities of Russia and China, along with Islamic and right wing extremists, have been named as the most severe threats to Irish security by the Commission on the Defence Forces.
In its report, which went to cabinet today and is due to be published on Wednesday, the Commission makes clear the Defence Forces are ill-equipped to deal with most of these threats.
The report recommends the most far reaching programme of reform in the Irish military's century long history, with most of the emphasis being on reforming and expanding the Naval Service and Air Corps in recognition of Ireland as an island nation.
Under its most ambitious proposals, Defence spending will increase by 300 per cent, the Naval Service will be made up of 12 ships and the Air Corps will be equipped with long range transport aircraft and a squadron of between 12 and 24 fighter jets to police Irish skies.
The total establishment strength of the Defence Forces should increase from 9,500 to 11,500, with most of the increases taking place in the Naval Service and Air Corps, it said. It also recommended renaming these branches the Navy and the Airforce.
It makes clear the current level of Defence spending is not sustainable if Ireland wishes to possess a credible military capability
The report also contains the most damning official assessment of Irish security in many years. The Army told the Commission that “it is not equipped, postured or realistically prepared to conduct a meaningful defence of the State against a full spectrum force for any sustained period of time.”
The Commission said it is clear the same applies to the Air Corps and Naval Service.
Boost recruitment
The report also makes a series of recommendations on how to boost recruitment and improve retention.
These include removing some of the distinctions between officers and enlisted personnel, relaxing grooming standards and allowing recruits with specialist skills to bypass some aspects of military training. Barriers to women and minorities must also be urgently addressed
The Defence Forces should set a goal of 35 per cent female membership and it should make it easier for foreign born members to achieve Irish citizenship, it says.
The command and control structure should be completely overhauled with all three military branches being of the same status, instead of the army holding precedence.
There should be a Chief of Defence (CHOD) over all the Defence Forces who would have much more operational autonomy than the current chief of staff role. Each branch should have their own Chief of Service.
The Defence Forces must also adapt to respond to new threats. It should establish a “joint cyber defence command” which would play a frontline role in both detecting and deterring cyberattacks, countering misinformation and protecting the integrity of Irish elections from online interference.
It must also urgently develop anti-drone technology to protect critical infrastructure and overseas troops.
Ireland faces increased threats from “great power competitions” and faces being “sandwiched” between the interests of the US and China in areas such as 5G technology, technology governance and technology procurement.
Instability
The continued instability on Europe’s borders and the decreased appetite of the US to become involved in such matters is also a threat, it said.
Another threat is posed by the increased use of hybrid forms of aggression, including cyber attacks, against western democracies.
Irish troops on peacekeeping duties has face increasing threats due to the growth of drone technology and worsening climate change.
Jihadis, including Irish people who have travelled to the middle east to fight for terrorist groups, pose a security threat as do right wing extremists.
The technology industry, on which Ireland relies for much of its wealth, is becoming a proxy battlefield for powerful nations, the Commission said.
In the physical realm, there is a growing risk of Ireland’s land, sea and air being used as vectors of attack for European neighbours. The report mentions other country’s aircraft flying in Irish controlled airspace with their transponders turned off in order to test the response time of the UK, a practice undertaken by Russian bombers in recent years.
There will be a growing need for military intelligence to protect State security from foreign espionage, it said, and the role of the Defence Forces intelligence’s service must be clarified.
Levels of Ambition
The Commission laid out three “Levels of Ambition” (LOA) for the Government to consider.
LOA 1 involves simply maintaining the current state of the military. This is not recommended and would leave Ireland vulnerable to various threats, the report states.
LOA 2 would involve identifying and filling urgent gaps in Irish national security. This would include measures such as allowing the Naval Service to put 9 full crewed ships to sea and improving the Air Corps helicopter fleet, as well as procuring a primary radar system to identity foreign military aircraft in Irish controlled airspace.
It would involve a 50 per cent increase in defence spending. The commission said it would not require major changes to policy as it would involve identifying the current gaps which prevent the Government from meeting its already stated policy aims.
LOA 3 would involve equipping the military to match other western countries of comparable size. The Naval Service would get 12 ships while the Air Corps would get a squadron of fighter jets and long range aircraft for transporting troops and supplies. To meet these needs, defence spending would have to increase by a factor of between 2.5 and three, it said.
The Commission recommends that the Government adopt LOA 2 in the short term while a policy debate takes place on the benefits of adopting the LOA 3 recommendations.
