It's usual for parties trailing in the opinion polls to insist that the offending surveys do not reflect "what we're hearing on the doorsteps". In Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath, the doorsteps might just be right.
On the face of it, the Labour majority is unassailable. In 2001, Roger Godsiff pulled in more than 21,000 votes, giving him 58 per cent of the turnout and a 44 per cent majority. His nearest challenger was the Liberal Democrat with 13 per cent.
This has been Labour territory since Roy Hattersley was a lad. He held the seat here and - to quote the man himself - "took the votes of Birmingham Muslims for granted" for 33 years.
It was the Muslim vote - boosted by families arriving from Kashmir, the Punjab and other places - which expanded his majority from 1,200 to more than 12,000 when he retired in 1997.
This is an area where the man, woman or party which offends Muslims will cut a lonesome figure. In one ward, 80 per cent of the residents are classified as "ethnic minority". The halal meat centres, Asian gold jewellery, glittering bridal emporiums side by side with burka shops and traditional street dress mark it out as rock-solid Asian/Muslim territory, virtually interchangeable with a Pakistani streetscape.
And as far as Sparkbrook and Small Heath is concerned, Labour is going to be the lonely party now. It has offended. And how. The Birmingham Muslims are awake. They will not be taken for granted again.
This is not like other areas where conflicted Labour voters agitate, weigh their anti-war outrage against the possibility of letting the Tories in and come trudging back to Labour with a peg on their noses.
Many Muslims here acknowledge that in almost every way Labour has been a force for good. Ashraf Chaudry, an IT manager in the local college, points out that the party has been "very good and supportive for the faith schools and . . . Mr Godsiff is very helpful to us".
Increases in the minimum wage and in child benefit have been particularly important in poor Muslim areas. Furthermore, Godsiff himself does not rank among the blind Blair loyalists and appears to have struck a moderate tone on all the big issues. Even when he declared to the BBC that Britain was full and could not take any more economic migrants - "enough is enough" - he failed to trigger mass alienation.
Many people in his constituency, even those for whom English is not their first language, say that better controls are required and that the government should concentrate on taking better care of those already in the country.
But Iraq is the issue which trumps them all.
Talib Hussain's family were devout Labour supporters for 30 years. Roy Hattersley was a family friend. The Hussains' uncle was a kind of elder statesman in his community, an "unelected councillor", in the words of Abdul, Talib's brother, who mediated for them with the MP.
Three years ago, all that changed, utterly and painfully. The family, revolted by Blair's war stance on Iraq, not only renounced their membership but switched to the Lib Dems - "they were the first to speak against the war" - whereupon Talib became a candidate. Last year, he took over one-third of the vote in the council elections and headed the poll. He is now Roger Godsiff's main challenger.
Mr Phatti, a courteous, elderly shopkeeper who arrived in Britain in 1960 and was a member of the Labour Party for 40 years has also resigned. "The war is so wrong. Mr Blair has no right to go behind the Americans. For 44 years, I voted Labour. This time, I won't vote."
Ali (39), who is the owner of a phone shop, was also a member of the Labour Party until recently. "But definitely not now. I will never vote Labour again. And it's not only me, but the whole extended family of 33 people have changed. We have been sold out by our own government."
He will vote Lib Dem, he says. "I considered voting for Respect [ former Labour rebel George Galloway's new anti-war party], but I don't agree with their proposal to legalise gay marriages."
A 34-year-old single mother and traditional Labour voter agrees that Labour did good things but says she "will not vote for them again".
Mr Darr, from a local estate agents, is also certain that change is in the wind. "Ninety per cent of it is the war. But it's also because the government has not been honest. They think all the people are stupid. Basically, Asians have been natural Labour voters, but quite a lot of supporters and workers - workers, yes - have switched sides. I was a Labour Party member for 10 years but have resigned. I haven't decided who to vote for yet."
But the Lib Dem posters in his window might provide a clue, I suggest. Could Hussain dislodge Godsiff? "It could happen. It would be a huge upset, but I can tell you this: it will be close."
British Muslims are "growing up", in the words of Mr Rasoul, a teacher so orthodox that he refused to shake this reporter's hand.
Yesterday, Roger Godsiff's constituency phone was on voicemail.
