America Letter: The casualty list after the Senate's rejection of comprehensive immigration reform last week is long and distinguished, starting with President Bush, who staked more of his dwindling political capital on the Bill than on any other domestic policy issue.
His failure to persuade more than a handful of Republicans to back reform was a humiliating demonstration of his loss of political authority, which could yet force a change of course in other areas, including the war in Iraq.
Senator John McCain, the leading Republican supporter of reform, has seen his presidential campaign tumble into crisis, announcing this week that he is laying off dozens of staff and cutting the pay of those who remain. Once the clear frontrunner in the Republican race, McCain is now trailing former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and the undeclared former senator-turned-actor Fred Thompson in national polls and is far behind - in sixth place - in Iowa, where the first caucuses are held next year.
Failure to agree on how to deal with immigration has further tarnished the reputation of Congress, which is now almost as unpopular as it was before the Democrats took control earlier this year.
The biggest losers are the 12 million undocumented immigrants, who have seen their best hope of emerging out of the shadows into normal life disappear for at least two years, and probably for much longer.
Staffers on Capitol Hill this week were comparing the immigration Bill's defeat to the collapse of Hillary Clinton's healthcare reform in the 1990s, which drove that issue off the legislative agenda for more than a decade.
Legislators in both parties agree that, like healthcare reform, changes to the US immigration system are needed urgently, but few are now willing to risk their political future on any steps that go beyond improving border protection and taking tougher action against illegal immigrants and their employers.
There is no prospect of a revival of comprehensive reform before next year's elections and the depth and vigour of opposition on the part of a substantial part of American society to an "amnesty" for illegal immigrants means that any new president will be wary of embracing the issue during his or her first term.
Foreign minister Dermot Ahern said last week that the Senate Bill's failure will not diminish the Government's determination to secure a "fair deal" for thousands of undocumented Irish immigrants. The Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform (ILIR), which led a remarkable campaign to mobilise Irish America in support of comprehensive reform, says it will now focus on securing a separate deal for Irish immigrants.
In Niall O'Dowd and Ciaran Staunton, ILIR has politically-astute leaders with long experience of immigration battles stretching back into the 1980s and an extensive, sympathetic network within Congress. As they consider their new strategy, however, Irish campaigners are operating in a more difficult political climate than ever before and their options are severely limited.
Some Irish activists are encouraged by last year's authorisation by Congress of a deal that will allow more than 10,000 Australians to enter the US on a special E-3 visa. The two-year visa, which can be renewed indefinitely, allows immigrants to bring spouses and children to the US and permits spouses to work legally.
It is limited to third-level graduates, however, and to applicants who are coming to the US to take up work in a "special occupation". More significantly, the Australian deal offers no route to legal status for those already living illegally in the US.
Among the various visa schemes that have helped the Irish since the 1980s, the 1990 Morrison visas were the most successful in opening the door and in helping undocumented immigrants to regularise their status. Relatively lax border controls meant that Irish illegal immigrants were able to go back to Ireland quietly, pick up their Morrison visas and return to the US legally.
Tougher border security now makes it impossible for undocumented immigrants to go home without the risk of being refused entry back into the US and means that any move to legalise the undocumented Irish would have to include a more overt offer of amnesty.
Other groups are already lobbying for special deals, including farmers in southern states who want a guest worker programme for migrants on whom they depend to do the back-breaking work of picking fruit in the scorching heat. Such deals may be politically impossible, however, before the enactment of new enforcement measures which will, in the meantime, make life in the US even more difficult and uncertain for the undocumented.
