What is going on with the Covid-19 restrictions?
Restrictions were eased on Friday in the third phase of relaxations since the most severe Level 5 restrictions started to be lifted on December 1st. But this has coincided with fresh concerns about an increase in cases and new advice from the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) that restrictions be reintroduced after Christmas to stop a further spread of the virus after mixing over the festive period.
What has Nphet recommended?
The team's advice is contained in a letter sent to Government on Thursday night. The letter has not been published yet because the Cabinet has to meet to consider it next Tuesday but details of what is being recommended have emerged. Nphet wants the country moved back to an enhanced Level 3 restriction – similar to what was in place before Friday and earlier this month – but with tighter restrictions on the hospitality sector and changes to limit the mixing of households. It is recommending that non-essential retail can remain open.
What exactly are they advising the Government to do?
Nphet has recommended that restaurants and gastropubs be limited to delivery and takeaway only from December 28th – similar to how they been operating under Level 5 restrictions until these were lifted for the hospitality sector on December 4th. They want the number of households mixing to be reduced from two others to one other. Visits to households only began again on Friday to facilitate gatherings of families, friends and loved ones over Christmas. Nphet wants to stop inter-county travel after Christmas, shortening the period this will be in place from a previous end-date on January 6th. Inter-county travel was only permitted again on Friday.
Hospital Report
Will all this happen?
This is just advice and it is up to the Government to decide at the Cabinet meeting next Tuesday but Taoiseach Micheál Martin said on Friday he was "minded" to accept Nphet's advice and proceed with "significant restrictions" on the hospitality sector. The Government may decide to amend the actions slightly, such as to reintroduce restrictions on December 29th or 30th – instead of the recommended December 28th – and to permit outdoor dining to help some restaurants and gastropubs generate revenue from heated patios or outdoor dining areas, despite the time of year.
Why are these dates important?
The view is the Government will have to act by introducing new restrictions before New Year's Eve, a popular night for socialising when increased mixing and contacts would risk a further spread of the virus through gatherings and parties in households, restaurants and gastropubs.
What has Nphet so concerned?
The increase in new Covid-19 infections. Chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan said on Friday that there had been "too much social contact" over the past two weeks. He said the reproduction number of the virus - the closely monitored number that tell us whether it is spreading or not – was probably higher than 1.3. This means that there will be 13 new people infected by the virus for every 10 cases. If the figure is below one, the virus is being suppressed. The number of new daily cases rose to 431 cases on Wednesday and 484 cases on Thursday. This surged to 582 new cases on Friday, the first time since November 8th that there have been more than 500 cases reported in a day. These increases push the five-day average of cases and the seven-day average to a level that Nphet said last month would require a three-week intervention to curb the virus.
But new restrictions are not advised for another 10 days, at least - what happens before then?
Nphet and the Government will be watching the daily Covid-19 figures closely over the coming days. Given that restaurants, food-serving pubs, museums, galleries, cinemas and places of worship (for up to 50 people) are open, that people can travel between counties, and that households can mix with two other households, the risk of the virus spreading further is high. Despite restrictions being eased further on Friday, Dr Holohan and the Government have said that people need to be careful about the number of contacts that they have over Christmas.
