More than 9,000 additional coronavirus cases are expected to be reported in the coming days as positivity rates exceed 20 per cent, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) has said.
A further 1,754 cases of the virus and 11 more deaths were reported by Nphet on New Year’s Day.
The team said up to 70 people were being admitted to the State’s hospital system each day and the number of people in hospital with the disease passed 500 on Friday. There are now 47 people seriously ill in ICU with Covid-19. Some 9,000 new cases are expected to be reported in the coming days because of a backlog in Christmas reporting.
There have now been 93,532 cases of coronavirus reported in the Republic since the start of the pandemic last March, and 2,248 deaths.
The Republic entered a full Level 5 lockdown at midnight on New Year’s Eve with the closure of all non-essential retail, the reintroduction of a 5km travel limit, restrictions on household visits and the delayed reopening of schools until at least January 11th.
Of the cases notified on Friday 846 are men and 900 are women, 64 per cent are under 45 years of age, while the median age is 35 years. A total of 523 cases are in Dublin, 296 in Cork, 180 in Galway, 104 in Mayo, 94 in Kerry and the remaining 557 cases are spread across all other counties.
As of 2pm on Friday 504 Covid-19 patients are hospitalised, of which 47 are in ICU with 46 additional hospitalisations in the past 24 hours, Nphet said in its daily statement.
Chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan said: “The most concerning trend at present is the rapidly increasing number of people being admitted to hospital - we are now admitting between 50 – 70 people a day to our hospital system.
“Unfortunately, we expect this to get worse before it gets better. Our health system will not continue to cope with this level of impact.
“We have also seen a significant increase in positive laboratory tests in recent days reflecting a true increase in the incidence of the disease as well as the delay in people coming forward for testing over the Christmas period.”
Positivity rates have soared from 5 per cent on December 18th, when the restriction on inter-county travel was lifted, to 20.7 per cent on New Year’s Eve.
Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the Nphet Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, said: "Tests processed and reported on a given day will normally be validated and confirmed by the HPSC the following day. Positive tests detected in laboratories require validation (to remove duplicates and other tests that do not create new cases) and transfer to the HPSC database before confirmation and reporting.
“A very large volume of positive tests in recent days means there is a delay in formal reporting. In excess of 9,000 additional new cases will be reported over the coming days. The reporting delay does not affect case management or contact tracing or our overall monitoring and modelling of the pandemic.”
Rampant
HSE chief Paul Reid said on earlier on Friday the virus was now “rampant” while HSE Chief Clinical Officer Colm Henry said it was “out of control”.
Speaking on RTÉ Radio One’s Morning Ireland Mr Reid said: “It is absolutely rampant in the community and we know that for a fact. Everyone is at extreme high risk now at contracting the virus.
“The real picture over the last few days is most likely getting close to 3,000 cases a day. That is the extent of the virus we are dealing with.
“So when we get to these levels it has a severe impact across a whole set of areas, and the volume beyond what any system can cope with,” Mr Reid added.
Mr Henry told the Today with Katie Hannon show on RTÉ Radio One that the virus was out of control and at a conservative estimate 1,200 hospital admissions were expected by mid-January and 2,000 by end of January. On Friday morning at 8am there were 491 confirmed cases in hospitals in the Republic with 42 in intensive care units.
On Thursday the National Public Health Emergency Team reported what Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan described as an "alarming escalation" in the spread of the virus.
“This disease is now widespread in our communities and as a result we are asking everyone to behave as if they are a close contact,” he added.
“To support the testing system through this surge, we are no longer advising close contacts of confirmed cases to get tested. Testing and tracing is an exercise in containment and we are no longer in a containment phase. However, it is imperative that if you are a close contact of a confirmed case you restrict your movements and contact your GP immediately if you develop symptoms.”
Nphet this week wrote to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly to express concern that even the new Covid-19 restrictions announced on Wednesday, and due to be in place until the end of January, will not be enough to curtail the spread of the virus.
In the letter sent on Wednesday and published on Thursday, Dr Holohan said: "Nphet reiterates its view that the current set of measures will not be sufficient to interrupt transmission patterns to the extent necessary."
Nphet is recommending that Level 5 restrictions be imposed for a period of six weeks. “Nphet advises that this will require, at a minimum, the implementation of and adherence to the full suite of Level 5 measures as set out in the Government’s Plan for Living with COVID-19. The Nphet recommends that these measures are put in place as a matter of urgency and remain in place for a period of six weeks.”
“The level of disease has now exceeded containment and, as such, we are now in a mitigation phase.”
The letter goes on to say that Nphet “is of the view that the virus is circulating in the community at such a level that it requires strict ‘stay at home’ measures (with exemptions provided only for those activities and services that are essential in nature) to significantly and comprehensively reduce opportunities for contact and further transmission of the disease.”
Nphet believes due to “some element of under-reporting as a result of the festive period, and coupled with the potential additional risks posed by the UK and South African variants” that there “could be a further acceleration in incidence and severity indicators in the coming days”.
