Public health officials say they do not have concerns about large-scale outdoors events going ahead, provided they are confined to vaccinated people.
Asked whether an outdoor event such as Electric Picnic could go ahead if it was only for vaccinated people, chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan said he wouldn't have concerns from a public health point of view in such a situation.
The risk of vaccinated people transmitting the disease was “very, very small”, he pointed out, adding: “We wouldn’t have concerns about that if it could be achieved.”
Dr Holohan told a media briefing by the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) on Tuesday that unvaccinated people should not be allowed attend the forthcoming All-Ireland GAA football final and other large outdoor events.
Such events should be confined to people who are vaccinated, he said, and people who have not received the Covid-19 vaccine should not attend.
Croke Park could be filled for the All-Ireland final “four to five times over” even if tickets were confined to vaccinated people, he pointed out.
For unvaccinated people, there was a “pretty good chance” of running into someone with the disease amid such a scenario, Dr Holohan said. He described the combination of personal susceptibility and potential exposure to infected people as “wrong”.
Nphet official Prof Philip Nolan, of Maynooth University, told the briefing that vaccination should not be mandatory for attendance at third-level lectures later in the autumn. He said that by then 85 per cent of students would be fully vaccinated against Covid-19, as would staff, and mitigation measures would also be in place.
“In that context, where something is essential, it [mandatory vaccination] would be unnecessary. It wouldn’t achieve a significant reduction in risk,” he said.
Dr Holohan said he was “optimistic” the country would be in a position to move on from some of the current restrictions “in the near term”, but it would not be responsible to put a timeframe on lifting restrictions at this point.
Within four to six weeks, when more people are fully vaccinated, the path ahead will be clearer, he said.
New cases
The Department of Health reported 1,571 new cases of Covid-19 on Tuesday, with the total number of deaths here during the pandemic still standing at 5,074.
This includes 20 Covid-related deaths in August, 17 in July and 15 in June.
On Tuesday morning, there were 307 patients in hospital with the disease, including 55 in ICU.
Sixteen pregnant women were admitted to ICU due to Covid-19 between January and August this year, compared to none in 2020, the briefing also heard.
Ten were put on ventilation in ICU and seven were delivered. There were no maternal or neo-natal deaths.
Prof Nolan said modelling suggested the current wave of the pandemic here would peak “in the course of” September.
However, he added, the trajectory of the disease remains uncertain and the decline after the peak would be slow.
While 90 per cent of the adult population have had at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, only 70-75 per cent are at least seven days after a second dose, he pointed out.
Less than half of 16- to 29-year-olds are at least seven days after a second dose, the point at which recipients of the Pfizer vaccine gain full immunity.
There is a “significant and slowly increasing” burden of disease that will pose a challenge for the health service, Prof Nolan continued.
Covid is “predominantly a disease of young, unvaccinated adults” with very high incidence of the disease in the 16-29 age-group, he said. This “force of infection” was pushing out into older, vaccinated adults and younger, unvaccinated children.
The rate of admission of Covid-19 patients to hospital has increased seven-fold since July, while ICU admission rates are five times greater.
The national 14-day incidence of Covid-19 has risen to 526 cases per 100,000 people, but in three counties – Monaghan, Donegal and Cavan – it is in excess of 1,000 per 100,000. Relative to the rest of Europe, the State has one of the highest incidences at present.
Prof Nolan said the growth rate of the disease has fallen from 5 per cent in late July to 0-2 per cent at present.
He said modellers expected the current wave to peak at 2,000-5,000 cases a day, with the likely peak nearer 2,000-2,500.
The number of Covid patients in hospitals is expected to peak at 500-1,000, and ICU numbers for such patients at 100-150.
These forecasted peaks could be lower if, as appears to be the case, children remain less susceptible to the virus.
Nphet meets on Wednesday to consider what advice to give to the Government ahead of the publication of a roadmap next week on the next phase of reopening.
The Cabinet is to finalise a plan on Friday setting out timelines for the further easing of restrictions across several sectors.
Fully vaccinated
Almost 86 per cent of adults are now fully vaccinated against Covid-19, while just under 90,000 12- to 15-year-olds have now received first doses, the head of the Health Service Executive (HSE) has said.
More than 144,000 12- to 15-year-olds have been registered to receive Covid-19 vaccines, with 88,000 doses administered to this group in recent weeks.
The high numbers in hospitals and ICUs "is still our focus of concern", HSE chief executive Paul Reid said in a post on Twitter. The gap between adults partially and fully vaccinated was continuing to close, he said.
