EU agriculture ministers are set to allow a lifting of the EU export ban on British beef by products. Under the EU's complex decision making procedures, the outcome will be known late tonight or early tomorrow unless a majority of eight member states vote against. This seems most unlikely.
However, the decision, on tallow, gelatin and semen, will not be sufficient to halt the British policy of non co operation in more general EU business. Britain says this is still conditional on getting agreement on a "framework" for the lifting of the overall worldwide ban on British beef exports.
Mr Roger Freeman, the cabinet minister chairing the committee co ordinating the British government's anti BSE strategy, said yesterday there would be no dilution of the policy until it had such an agreement. He said the British government would end its policy of non co operation overnight, once the EU laid down a programme of measures and moved to a step by step lifting of the ban.
It emerged on Friday that Britain would not even be submitting proposals for such a framework to today's meeting in Luxembourg. This makes any agreement at a political level from member states unlikely before the Florence EU summit on June 21st and 22nd.
That meeting, which brings the Italian presidency of the EU to an end, is almost certain to become a "beef summit".
Diplomats in Brussels have taken comfort from reports that pro European Tory MPs are said to have threatened open rebellion in the Commons unless Mr Major finds a way of pulling back from his strategy. With key British ministers making it clear they are not looking for a specific timetable but rather an agreement on the approach to be taken, there is clearly room for a face saving agreement.
Agriculture ministers will also be pleased to receive today the long awaited British "comprehensive" eradication strategy although this is likely to be no more than a compilation of measures announced or already in place.
Yesterday the former foreign secretary, Mr Douglas Hurd, warned Mr Major in a television interview against persisting in his obstructionist course. "It is reasonable as a short term tactic but to settle down to some sort of trench warfare, particularly against things that we are in favour of, would, of course, be counterproductive" he said.
The British Commissioner, Sir Leon Brittan, added his voice to the calls for moderation: "Don't let the Euro sceptics call the tune. The Conservative Party is not going to win the election by rabid anti Europeanism. That will look like panic."
Britain's attempt to defuse the situation will be stepped up tomorrow when the Foreign Secretary, Mr Malcolm Rifkind, and the Agriculture Secretary, Mr Douglas Hogg, are in Brussels for a meeting with the Commission President, Mr Jacques Santer.
Later in the week the Union's Standing Veterinary Committee will meet, but it is unlikely to have further formal proposals on which to work. Any agreement on the scientific basis of the British approach will also require political endorsement, then only possible at a conclave of foreign ministers in Rome on June 17th, or more likely in Florence on June 21st.
British and Commission sources have hinted at a phased agreement involving lifting the ban on the export of calves, then of beef from certified grass fed herds, then of older animals. But the Germans will be demanding new measures to be both in place and shown to be working before they agree to further stages.
Meanwhile, British officials said they would continue to block decisions requiring unanimity. With four ministerial meetings today and tomorrow, nearly a dozen votes are affected. Most important is the final ratification of the Europol Convention at the Justice meeting tomorrow, already held up for over a year.
