A sharp reduction in carbon emissions recorded last year at the height of the Covid-19 crisis has proven short-lived, with scientists projecting a bounce back to near pre-pandemic levels this year.
Global emissions fell 5.4 per cent in 2020 amid strict lockdowns and restrictions, but a report from the Global Carbon Project forecasts an increase of 4.9 per cent to 36.4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent this year.
Emissions from coal and gas are expected to grow more than they fell last year, though emissions from oil use will remain below 2019 levels, it says.
The research team – including scientists from the University of Exeter and University of East Anglia – say a further rise in emissions next year “cannot be ruled out if road transport and aviation return to pre-pandemic levels and coal use is stable”.
"The rapid rebound in emissions as economies recover from the pandemic reinforces the need for immediate global action on climate change," said Prof Pierre Friedlingstein of University of Exeter's Global Systems Institute.
Delegates at the Cop26 summit in Glasgow are attempting to forge a global agreement to halve emissions by 2030.
Reaching net zero by 2050 entails cutting global emissions by 1.4 billion tonnes each year on average, Prof Friedlingstein said. “This highlights the scale of action now required, and hence the importance of Cop26 discussions.”
Response
For China, a major manufacturing hub, the response to the pandemic sparked further growth in emissions, pushed by the energy and industry sectors, the report says.
Emissions in the US and EU should rise above last year’s reduced totals but will stay some 4 per cent below those seen in 2019.
China is this year projected to emit 11.1 billion tonnes of CO2 – 31 per cent of global emissions, the analysis says. The US is projected to emit 5.1 billion tonnes of CO2 – 14 per cent of the total – and EU states are forecast to emit a combined 2.8 billion tonnes (7 per cent), a similar percentage to India. The figures exclude international transport including aviation.
University of East Anglia professor Corinne Le Quéré said the findings were a “reality check” on the need for rapid action by countries to deliver greater emissions cuts to keep the globally-agreed 1.5 degree warming limit within reach.
The figures show that at current levels the world has only 11 years left before it has used up the whole “budget” for the amount of carbon humans can pump into the atmosphere and still stay within that global warming target.
