DUP and SF juggernauts flatten opposition

Analysis: The DUP and Sinn Féin juggernauts trundle on, rolling over respectively the Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP, although…

Analysis:The DUP and Sinn Féin juggernauts trundle on, rolling over respectively the Ulster Unionist Party and the SDLP, although the injuries inflicted on Mark Durkan's party are not as severe as the wounds sustained by Sir Reg Empey and his colleagues.

Just over 690,000 people voted in the Assembly elections, 5,000 down on 2003, which is a reasonable turnout considering the concerns that voter apathy might weaken the democratic voice. But there the comparison between the two polls ends.

"The people have spoken," Ian Paisley said last night, as indeed they have. But what have they said? Different things to different politicians, it seems.

What they've said to the DUP is yes, no, maybe. To all the other parties they've said, do the deal. We'll come back to that.

READ SOME MORE

This time the DUP has surged ahead, winning almost 208,000 or 30 per cent of the vote, 30,000 votes up on 2003. Not bad for the DUP leader Dr Paisley and his colleagues, who as well as confronting the UUP also faced the major irritant of Robert McCartney of the UK Unionist Party.

The UKUP, running 13 candidates, six of them versions of Mr McCartney, could only muster 10,500 votes, and last night it looked like Mr McCartney would be unseated in North Down.

Sinn Féin won over 180,000 votes, an increase of almost 18,000 votes on 2003. It operated its vote management system well, and, at the time of writing, was on track to take a fifth seat in Gerry Adams's constituency of West Belfast, most likely at the expense of the DUP's Diane Dodds.

The UUP vote was slashed dramatically from 157,000 four years ago to just 103,000 this time, making it the fourth of the four main parties, now behind the SDLP which took 105,000 votes - a drop of more than 12,000 votes from 2003.

While it was a disaster for the UUP, the Alliance Party defied the odds, once again. We pundits were saying they could be as low as two and as high as seven, and that leader David Ford's seat was threatened. Mr Ford seems safe and Alliance could win six and even seven, its vote up by almost 11,000 to just over 36,000 votes.

Last night Dawn Purvis appeared set to hold the late David Ervine's seat in East Belfast, which would ensure that the Progressive Unionist Party - and by extension, the Ulster Volunteer Force - would continue to have a voice in the Assembly.

But this democratic voice, what does it all mean? For certain it means that if Dr Paisley and Mr McGuinness want to do a deal they have a mandate from their electorates.

Out on the canvass the people seemed to be telling the politicians, including the DUP, to make politics work, but that wasn't quite what the DUP heard.

There were different tones to the DUP voice yesterday. MEP Jim Allister, in hard phrases, couldn't see how there could be a deal by the St Andrews deadline of March 26th unless Sinn Féin was clearer on its commitment to supporting the police, and unless the IRA army council was disbanded and there were other "unlesses" in there as well.

More dulcet, Jeffrey Donaldson over in Lagan Valley intimated there would be powersharing but, hey, let's not get hidebound by deadlines. How about leaving it to the summer, was his effective message.

Dr Paisley, whether being interviewed by reporters or appearing on various TV interviews, was in truculent, bombastic form - a bit like the old days - rowing with interviewers, telling "Sinn Féin/IRA" that they needed to "repent and turn from their evil ways", and insisting Sinn Féin was not "entitled to be at the table until they declare themselves for democracy".

The DUP have no veto - if the March 26th deadline wasn't met then scrap the Assembly and get on with the new partnership arrangements, was the retort from Sinn Féin.

It was all a bit sour at times. It sounded like old-fashioned deadlock, but it's probably best to realise that in the middle of counts passions are raised and it's just too early to talk of political deals.

As Martin McGuinness said: "I would take with a large pinch of salt anything Ian Paisley and his supporters say today. It's what he says tomorrow and the day after tomorrow that counts." Which is where we are. Between now and March 26th there is much more hard work and talking to be done.

Enter the Irish and British governments again.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times