America: With Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a dead-heat after Super Tuesday as Republicans start to unite around John McCain, Democratic leaders are growing ever more anxious at the prospect of a nominating contest that could drag on for months.
"The idea that we can afford to have a big fight at the convention and then win the race in the next eight weeks, I think, is not a good scenario," Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairman Howard Dean said this week.
That scenario is, however, precisely what both the Clinton and Obama campaigns are anticipating as they look ahead to the next caucuses and primaries.
A memo inadvertently leaked from the Obama campaign predicts that, after the last primary on June 3rd, fewer than 20 pledged delegates will separate the two candidates with neither reaching the 2,025 needed to win the nomination.
Obama expects to win 19 of the remaining 27 contests, but the memo predicts that Clinton will prevail in the three biggest states yet to vote, Ohio and Texas on March 4th and Pennsylvania on April 22nd.
The Clinton campaign shares much of this analysis, although Clinton's advisers believe she could pull off surprise victories in Maryland and Virginia next Tuesday.
Both campaigns agree that, under the Democrats' system of proportional representation, neither candidate will be able to gain a major edge in delegates in any of the forthcoming contests.
This leaves only two factors that could break the tie - the votes of the so-called super delegates, 796 Democratic officials and officeholders who are not bound by the results of primaries and caucuses, and a decision on what to do about delegates from Florida and
Michigan. Florida and Michigan were stripped of their delegates by party leaders as a punishment for scheduling primaries in January against the wishes of the DNC.
None of the Democratic candidates campaigned in either state and only Clinton and Dennis Kucinich allowed their names to remain on the ballot in Michigan. Clinton won both states and she is pressing for their 366 delegates to be seated at the convention, a move that, not surprisingly, Obama opposes.
Both states will be important battlegrounds in November's election and the DNC is eager to resolve the standoff in a manner that keeps its honour intact while appeasing activists in Florida and Michigan.
One proposal is to ask both states to vote again, this time in caucuses. The Clinton campaign is adamantly opposed to the idea, not least because caucuses favour Obama's campaign, with its superior grassroots organisation.
Both campaigns are already wooing super delegates, but the Obama memo predicts that fewer than half will be committed to either candidate before the convention. Many of the super delegates are congressmen who will themselves be up for election in November and Obama's chief strategist said yesterday that they should consider which candidate will expand the party's vote.
"I think all those super delegates should be watching closely what is happening in this election, and who has the ability to bring more people to the Democratic ranks, who has the ability to get those crossover voters, to bring independents, to galvanise young people and expand our base so we're not in another situation as we've had in past elections, where we're in this sort of 50/50 situation and we have to try and eke out a win; we haven't done it the last couple of times.
"We have an opportunity here with Obama to build a coalition, a majority coalition that not only can win an election, but can bring about change," he said.
A long battle will oblige the Democratic candidates to raise and spend millions of dollars that might otherwise be used to fund the general election, and a brokered convention could leave activists on the losing side embittered and unmotivated to campaign for the eventual nominee.
Dean suggested this week that, if no winner emerges in March or April, "then we're going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement".
The trouble is that both candidates still believe they can win, both campaigns are strong and despite the news that Clinton lent her campaign $5 million last month, both have the resources for a prolonged race.
Clinton is unlikely to settle for a vice-presidential slot and Obama must be reluctant to consider the junior role in a White House that will be occupied by not one, but two Clintons.
All of which is good news for journalists, advertising agents, pundits and political junkies - and above all, for John McCain.
