July 14th is supposed to be the French president's special day. He reviews his troops on the ChampsElys ees, hosts 4,000 people at a picnic on his palace lawn and shares his thoughts with the people of France in a live television broadcast.
Today's parade will be led by the King of Morocco's Royal Guard, for Hassan II is to be President Jacques Chirac's Bastille Day guest of honour. Then an array of fighter-bombers, reconnaissance and transport aircraft and helicopters - every type of aircraft that participated in the bombardment of Yugoslavia - is to fly over the parade route.
But while the French military contemplate their "victory" in Serbia, Mr Chirac will be thinking of three lost battles: the 1997 parliamentary elections which he called, the 1998 regional elections and the European elections of last June 13th.
These defeats have mired the French right in its deepest crisis since Gen de Gaulle founded the Fifth Republic in 1958. In recent days Mr Chirac, a Gaullist, has been attacked by his own right-wing cohorts, who accuse him of being too conciliatory to the governing left-wing coalition.
Mr Philippe Seguin, the former president of the RPR party founded by Mr Chirac, resigned in the midst of the European election campaign and now criticises Mr Chirac's "emollient" cohabitation with the Socialist Prime Minister, Mr Lionel Jospin.
A growing number of right-wing politicians are calling on Mr Chirac to end his cosy relationship with the left and establish a five-year presidential term; which if applied to Mr Chirac would mean a presidential poll next year.
With that special contempt born of familiarity, the former president, Mr Valery Giscard d'Estaing, this week delivered a pitiless critique of Mr Chirac in a full-page interview with Le Monde. Mr Chirac served as Mr Giscard's prime minister in the 1970s, then challenged him for the leadership of the right in the 1981 presidential election.
In the European elections on June 13th, the highest score obtained by a right-wing party was 13.5 per cent, Mr Giscard noted, turning the knife in Mr Chirac's wounds. For the first time, parties calling themselves Gaullist presented two separate lists, and not once did Mr Chirac speak on behalf of a candidate or appeal to voters.
The French right is now divided into roughly three camps: anti-European Gaullists led by Mr Charles Pasqua; economic liberals; and centrists.
When Gen de Gaulle was alive, Mr Giscard intoned, he had a vision for France and people followed him. The former president mocked Mr Chirac for asking right-wing politicians to "find a programme that will unite people".
"Never would de Gaulle have said that! He would have said, `I'm the one who makes plans. You're there to support them'," Mr Giscard said. Mr Chirac should have resigned after the disastrous election in 1997, he added.
With such friends on the right, Mr Chirac may actually be looking forward to the year-end political talks with the left which he is expected to announce today. The five-year term will be on the agenda.
