Bookie runs rule over NI election hopefuls

Overview: You have to hand it to Barney Eastwood, or whoever of his family is running the Eastwood bookmaking empire these days…

Overview:You have to hand it to Barney Eastwood, or whoever of his family is running the Eastwood bookmaking empire these days.

In his shops you can sacrifice your Charvet shirt by gambling on the horses, the dogs, darts, football, cricket . . . in fact, on virtually every sport played on the planet.

You can also bet on politics, although you'd imagine that the first three home in the 3.40 at Lingfield today, rather than the first six home in north Belfast on March 7th, would be of more interest to Eastwood's regular punters.

This of course explains why the company has taken out an advertisement on the Slugger O' Toole website. Those of you who are computer literate can Google Slugger O'Toole and you'll find the site. And there, on the top right hand corner, you have a picture of Stormont - with shots of Ian Paisley, Gerry Adams, Reg Empey and Mark Durkan, and an enticing invitation to: "Bet the Election".

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Slugger O'Toole is run by blogger Mick Fealty who, as a former Irish Timesnews editor used to say, is one of those band of "Northern political fetishists" who are still excited by affairs of the Northern Ireland state.

Slugger, by the way, was a sailor on the ill-fated Irish Rover. Remember the Pogues and Ronnie singing: "There was Slugger O'Toole, who was drunk as a rule . . .". It's a lively site. You get a good mix of analysis, commentary, and observation, and also bytimes venom and insult from its multitude of subscribers, some of it occasionally directed at Irish Times and other journalists whose views are considered ill-informed, or just plain annoying.

Eastwood also approves of Slugger and figure that it provides a captive, target audience of political mugs who will help in swelling even further the coffers of Barney and his family. Now the Eastwoods, like every bookie's, are a shrewd outfit and try to shape the odds in the company's rather than the punter's favour.

So, how does Barney see it? Let's look at some of the betting in key areas. East Belfast, for instance.

Peter Robinson is hoping to win an extra and third seat for the DUP there. Can he do it? With odds of 1/5 the answer is yes, according to Eastwoods.

Gerry Adams wants to win an extra fifth seat for Sinn Féin in West Belfast. Will he? Odds of 11/10 says the answer is maybe. Gregory Campbell hopes to win a third and extra DUP seat in East Derry for the DUP. Can he? Odds of 3/1 says maybe not, according to the firm.

And here's an interesting one. Paul Berry, effectively forced to leave the DUP because of tabloid allegations over his private life, is running as an Independent in Newry and Armagh. Will unionists voters take him back? Not a chance, say the Eastwoods. His odds are 10/1, which seem generous.

As for constituency poll-toppers not much point in punting on Adams in West Belfast or Iris Robinson of the DUP in Strangford, as both are at 1/80.

And as regards the biggest question, can there be a powersharing government by March 26th, well Barney is as confused as the rest of us: 4/5 says there will be a deal, 4/5 says there won't.

And, remember, if you make any money with the firm don't forget to say: "Thank you very much, Mr Eastwood." If you want to save your money yet still predict the results don't despair, there is a site for you as well. It's the Northern Ireland Elections site (http://www.ark.ac uk/elections/), indispensable for all Northern political anoraks, and containing everything you need to know about this and other Northern elections.

It's run by Nicholas Whyte, an Alliance party candidate in North Belfast in his day, and now the Europe programme director at the International Crisis Group based in Brussels.

He is also running a predictions contest where you can pit your forecasting skills against the most avid and learned of the North's political pundits.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times