So, why is this news this week?
Former taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said all parties running in the next general election should make Irish unity “an objective, not just an aspiration” and commit to setting up a New Ireland Forum.
What’s needed for unity?
Under the Belfast Agreement, unity can happen if both parts of the island vote separately for it, but a Northern Ireland referendum can take place only when the Northern Secretary of State thinks the question there would pass, if asked.
Does a majority there want to vote for it?
No, frankly, or not yet, anyway, though pro-unity campaigners argue the point. Unionism’s vote share is falling but nationalism’s has barely risen – Sinn Féin’s gains have been at the expense of the SDLP.
[ Leo Varadkar says vote on Irish unity could involve a ‘two-stage referendum’Opens in new window ]
The middle-ground share, such as Alliance, is rising, but that vote divides on the constitutional question. For a lot of people, the question is important, but not the most important question right now.
Will it stay like that?
Time will tell. Unionism’s vote share will continue to fall, unless the Democratic Unionist Party sorts itself out. Alliance’s younger voters show signs – signs, mind you – of being more open about unity. But, as the saying goes, it’s not there yet.
What would happen if parties in the Republic all started to push strongly for unity?
Interesting one, this. It would accelerate debate, especially if a New Ireland Forum was set up. We had one in the 1980s. It lasted two years and sparked a huge row with Margaret Thatcher. A year later we had the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
What would it do to relations with unionists and London?
The DUP’s relations with Dublin would be strained, since it is always terrified of arch-loyalists, such as the Traditional Unionist Voice party led by Jim Allister. And Dublin campaigning would be manna from heaven for Allister.
Keir Starmer is a unionist and does not want to be the man to break up the United Kingdom, so he’s not likely to much welcome an organised Dublin push for unity, if that’s what all this turns out to be.
Are Varadkar’s comments significant?
One could argue so, yes. Taoiseach Simon Harris seems to say the opposite – describing unity as an aspiration, but not a priority – famously claiming most young people know more about Paris or Berlin than Derry and Belfast.
[ Leo Varadkar: ‘All trends point towards Irish unification in the next few decadesOpens in new window ]
But Varadkar’s comments leave Harris facing a question, and it is a conversation he would probably prefer not to have.
So what’s Varadkar up to?
Enjoying post-office freedom, it seems. Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald says he has discovered “his inner Shinner”, but, to be fair, he was the “greenest” Fine Gael leader, and openly in favour of unity – and of planning for it – for ages.
