Conor Popemakes his consumer predictions for 2009
IT'S IMPOSSIBLE to predict the future accurately, as any airline executive who has had to buy aviation fuel over the past 12 months will tell you. Prices can plummet just when you expect them to climb, as global events, big and small, can, in a heartbeat, turn an industry on its head. Some tourist trends for 2009 seem like safe bets, however.
1Expect to see more people planning staycations in 2009. We have had two appalling summers in a row, so, statistically at least, the chances of our having another one as bad have to be at least a little bit more remote. With fuel surcharges still in place on many airlines, and extra charges for once-free services, such as baggage check-in and adjacent seats, now commonplace, expect more people to throw their hat at it altogether next year. The hell of air travel, coupled with a growing number of empty Irish BBs and budget hotels, should ensure that more of us stay in Ireland next year, which is one reason why many tour operators have already started scaling back their overseas offerings.
2For some, not even staycations will be an economically feasible option, and naycations will be the order of the day. Holidays - home or abroad - will be skipped altogether as the first full-blown recession in nearly two decades takes a firm grip on the Irish economy. If money gets tighter, people will simply not be able to afford many of the high prices - pub price freezes and cheaper hotel rooms notwithstanding - to be found on home soil.
3Expect places such as the Canaries and maybe even the Spanish costas to become fashionable again. This year the country's middle class discovered the joys of budget shopping at Aldi and Lidl, and next year might see us all competing over getting the best-value sun holiday available. After all, such holidays are cheap, guarantee sun and give the kids something to do other than stare at the rain in Courtown.
4Even the cloud of redundancy has a silver lining. Some Irish travel companies are expecting to get an increased volume of calls from backpacking twenty- and thirty-something tourists who want to spend their redundancy packages somewhere cheaper and hotter than home. As we reported recently, one tour operator, Intrepid Travel, is even offering a 15 per cent discount to people who plan to finance their overseas trips with redundancy packages. "It appears that some people see being laid off as an opportunity to take a career break, reassess where they are at and see the world. By offering this discount we hope to make this opportunity a reality for them," says shrewd chief executive Darrell Wade.
5Things are going to get tough for the Irish spa sector, as mudbaths, seaweed wraps and skin sandblasting (okay, we made that last one up) are likely to be viewed as inessential luxuries. Already a number of high-profile spas around the country have drawn down the curtains on their pampering suites and blown out the last of the scented candles. Industry sources say there is potential for more closures in the next 12 months.
6Things won't be so blue for green holidays. In a survey of more than 3,000 people, TripAdvisor found that travellers are keener to be greener, so walking, camping and cycling holidays will become more popular. Even camping is likely to see a boost. (My colleague Catherine Mack writes about green holidays on page 16.)
7In recent years the active retired have been jet-setting around the world, (rightly) blowing the kids' inheritance in Australia, South America and Asia. Many will have to curb their enthusiasm, as their pension funds have taken a beating.
8The house swap will become big again, as it offers incredible savings to people who are fortunate enough to live in a house, and a location, that people from other countries might find even slightly desirable. If, however, you live in a prefab on a particularly wind-swept stretch of the M50 you might struggle to interest someone with a condo on the Miami beachfront. Three websites that may be of use are www.houseswap.ie, www.homeexchange.com and www.homelink.ie.
9Short breaks will grow in popularity, as people fed up with the doom and gloom at home will take advantage of cheap flights to Barcelona, Rome and Portugal to live a little at a lower cost.
10Expect to hear more about couchsurfing. It sounds bonkers but is growing in popularity. You register at www.couchsurfing.com, get in touch with like-minded souls in the place you want to visit, then crash on their sofa.
The downside is that you also have to be able to let random strangers who find you through the website to sleep on your sofa, too. In June last year 1,000 Irish members were registered with the site. Today that number tops 4,000 - a reflection of how popular holidaying on the cheap has become.