Almost from the moment the winter eviction ban was introduced, unwinding it was going to be daunting.
The question of how to do so percolated around the system for several weeks before a significant ramping up in activity last Thursday. At a meeting of a Cabinet subcommittee on housing, the shape of a deal had to be hammered out. “We were putting it off until last Thursday and then had a lengthy discussion,” one senior source involved in the talks said.
By the time the three Coalition party leaders met on Monday evening, three broad options had emerged: first, extending the ban with associated tax sweeteners for landlords. There was, however, what one senior source described as “total resistance” from Minister for Finance Michael McGrath to the idea of intervening with tax measures midway through the budgetary cycle. The Cork man argued that the floodgates could open and he would be left battling requests from renters, mortgage-holders, property developers – the list would be endless.
What’s more, officials in the Department of Housing didn’t like the idea of extending the ban: they felt it would have to be done for two years in order to have an effect, which would warp the market. They fretted over landlords exiting, a lack of new investment and undermining the credibility of the ban as an “emergency” measure.
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These concerns landed with the political side: one source describing how landlords are “exiting at a rate of knots”. Data from Sherry FitzGerald and the Society of Chartered Surveyors was proffered to support this.
Publicly, attention began to focus on an extension with tax sweeteners, but behind the scenes, the worm was turning on the idea. One Government source described the conviction that an extension was almost certain as “ridiculous and hilarious”. The Attorney General was not convinced: Ministers were told on Tuesday that extending the ban would “require substantial evidence and legal and policy justification”. Already facing one legal challenge to the existing plan, more would be expected, the Attorney General said.
Consideration was also given to an annually recurring winter eviction ban as is the case in France, but it seems to have received little backing.
The final option was to allow it to expire – but to introduce mitigations for renters. Again, sources involved in the talks say the policies were being passed around in the background. Green Party sources say they were pushing for this in particular, with Green leader Eamon Ryan having promoted it in the key Cabinet subcommittee meeting last week and then the leaders’ meeting on Monday. However, one senior source who supports the idea said it nonetheless “came late and needs work”.
Eventually, this progressed to the idea of a “first refusal” for tenants whose landlord is selling up, giving them the chance to buy the home. For those who cannot muster the purchase price, the Government envisages a “backstop” with a housing charity or local authority stepping into the breach and purchasing the property, with the tenant transferring to become a “cost rental” tenant, on the same or better terms. The Government, especially the Greens, are trumpeting this as a major expansion of the cost-rental programme.
However, there is plenty of work to be done: The Green Party admitted in a circular to members that a lot of details “still need to be worked out”. First, new legislation must be introduced and administrative changes have to be made to the “first home” shared-equity scheme, which will have its eligibility broadened to help people trying to buy from their landlords. The new law will not be ready before evictions recommence.
The Attorney General has advised there aren’t constitutional issues with the policy – but one source added the caveat of “yet”.
Politicians have also said the backstop option will apply to someone “at risk of homelessness”, but two sources on Tuesday couldn’t describe exactly what this meant. They suggested income limits or some sort of test may be applied to define it. Exactly what pot of money will be used to fund purchases also has to be established. Landlords, approved housing bodies and local authorities will have to buy into the scheme.
With housing, rent and homelessness an immovable part of the future of Irish politics, the decision not to extend the ban will likely live long in the political memory.
