1. Next minister for education to pass Leaving Cert reform test despite opposition
The Leaving Cert marks its 100th birthday this year — but it’s safe to assume students and their parents won’t be getting out the bunting anytime soon.
For too long the exam has been a narrow, highly stressful assessment whose main purpose is a filter for entry into higher education.
Reform plans which involve spreading the assessment load over fifth and sixth year — with projects or research tasks worth a minimum of 40 per cent — have sparked opposition.
Teachers’ unions want the reforms paused by at least a year. Some teachers want them scrapped entirely amid concerns over quality and equity. The clock is ticking, however, with changes set to roll out from next September. It’s difficult, then, to see how the next minister for education could realistically backtrack with so much momentum built up behind the plans.
2. AI anxiety to reach new levels of hysteria
In a related development, we can expect anxiety around students’ use of artificial intelligence (AI) to reach new heights of hysteria.
New Leaving Cert projects and research investigations worth 40 per cent will roll out for fifth years starting from September and some teachers worry that students will use AI tools to generate them within seconds.
The reality, of course, is that the threat isn’t new: students have been completing projects for years in history, geography and many other subjects, while ChatGPT has been with us for a few years.
Existing State Examinations Commission guidelines state that students provide a log of activities, details of research, drafts of their work — and it must be authenticated by the teacher. These details, however, will likely get lost amid the sound and fury.
3. Pressure to mount over special education
There has been a dramatic increase in autism diagnoses and other conditions among children which most experts put down to increased awareness, better diagnosis and widening of assessment boundaries.
Last year, in the region of 8,000 children were enrolled in special schools and a further 11,000 pupils in special classes in mainstream schools, or 2.7 per cent of the overall student population. This is projected to climb to 3 per cent this year and 5 per cent by 2030-2031.
Will the system cope? It is already under acute pressure. Special education places are hard to come by and the lack of therapeutic services is a stain on the national conscience.
There are some hopeful indicators. The trial of a new common applications system for schools in the Dublin 15 area may ease enrolment pressure. Additional staff at the National Council for Special Education should also help with planning. Let’s hope so, for all concerned.
4. Teacher shortages to ease at primary but worsen at second level
Pupil enrolment is dropping at primary level — about 60,000 fewer pupils will be at school by the end of this decade – which means it should be easier to find substitute teachers and attract applicants for full-time posts.
It’s a different story at second level. Student numbers are due to increase by about 15,000 over the next 12 months. It means no respite for schools, especially in the Greater Dublin Area, struggling to find qualified teachers in maths, Irish, home economics, science, languages and many other subjects.
It’s not an easy problem to solve, but potential solutions are financial incentives for teaching graduates in costly urban areas or affordable housing for critical public sector workers. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s pre-election manifestoes, however, suggest more tinkering with the system instead.
5. A halt to the ‘quiet and gradual decline’ of universities
Trinity College Dublin’s provost Prof Linda Doyle warned before last October’s budget that Irish universities were saddled with outdated computers and faced the prospect of “quiet and gradual decline”.
She had a point: incremental funding increases for higher education have been swallowed up by inflation, unfunded pay awards and demographic pressures.
The provision of additional core funding in Budget 2025, rising from €50 million this year to €150 million extra by 2029, should enable universities to invest in much-needed staff and supports.
Don’t expect miracles: when adjusted for inflation, educational spending at third level is only beginning to return to pre-crash levels.
6. Early years education to be a little cheaper — but no public system
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael both pledged to cap childcare costs at €200 per child per month, so we should see some progress on making early childhood education more affordable. (This, by the way, will still be well outside the EU average.)
Other parties were more ambitious and proposed establishing a universally accessible, public early childhood education and care system.
It’s difficult to see the political will to deliver on this kind of scale with a new government. Expect further strengthening of public funding and oversight of the sector, but it will very much remain a system of private-based childcare services.
7. Pumpkin and lentil dahl is on the school menu
The days of the Easi Single school sandwich are over. Anyone for pumpkin and lentil dahl? Beef stroganoff? Or what about Mexican three-bean stew?
School lunches have changed beyond recognition thanks to the free hot school meal programme which started up in 2019, starting with 37 primary schools.
It is due to expand from 3,000-plus primary schools later this year, up from the current 2,200 eligible for the scheme. Second level may well be next.
There are noble reasons behind it — tackling poverty and hunger, boosting children’s nutrition — but the fact that it will liberate stressed parents from the tyranny of scrambling for last-minute lunches may be its most enduring legacy.
8. Extra supports for school principals
Principals’ workloads have been growing exponentially: child protection requirements, securing contracts for schoolbooks, managing finances and hot meal programmes are just some of the non-educational demands facing school leaders.
Research shows that up to half of principals are experiencing burnout due to administrative demands and do not have enough time to lead teaching and learning.
Fine Gael pledged in its election manifesto to introduce new administrative supports to ease the non-educational workload of principals.
Given that research points to the fact that strong, empowered leaders are essential to transforming educational outcomes, this would seen to be an easy win at a modest cost.
9. Deis-plus scheme on the cards
The Deis scheme — which provides targeted resources towards schools in areas of socio-economic disadvantage — has expanded over recent years. But it is clear that some schools require far more resources to support pupils in areas with the highest concentrations of disadvantage.
The case for a Deis-plus scheme is compelling. An Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development report last year on the resourcing of schools recommended better targeting of resources towards those in greatest need, while a Deis-plus scheme was included in six of the main political party manifestos before the election.
Given the political consensus on the matter, this approach will surely feature in upcoming budget talks.
10. A review of restraint rules
The inappropriate use of seclusion and restraint of vulnerable pupils with challenging behaviour has been an issue of controversy for some time.
New guidance for dealing with “behaviours of concern” — published last month — states that schools may no longer use seclusion, while physical restraint is no longer permitted except in “crisis” situations.
However, the lack of independent monitoring and inspection around the use of restraint and the absence of a formal role for Tusla has sparked concern. The Ombudsman for Children, the Government’s Special Rapporteur on Child protection as well as advocacy groups have flagged serious concerns around it.
Given that the new rules come into force in September, a human rights review — at the very least — of the guidelines would seem to be a sensible step for a new minister.
11. Bricklayers and retrofitters needed
There is no shortage of ambition in Government targets in areas such as housing and retrofitting, but there’s a problem: we don’t have enough skilled workers to progress them.
If anything, the shortages will grow worse as construction ramps up. These are not warnings from vested interests but from the Department of Higher Education and Skills.
It says sourcing the required number of craft workers will be “challenging” in the coming years and the construction workforce may need to reach “Celtic Tiger” levels again. Anywhere between 70-80,000 new entrants will be needed.
Solas is doing a good job in ramping up apprenticeships, but we’ll need more upskilling and reskilling of existing workers if we are to reach these targets.
12. Slow shift towards multidenominational schools
Irish primary school ethos is frozen in time — some 88 per cent are under Catholic patronages, while just more than 5 per cent are multidenominational. The remaining 6 per cent are Church of Ireland schools.
Parents will shortly be invited to complete a national survey organised by the Department of Education on their preferred ethos of school as part of government efforts to change more Catholic schools to multidenominational patronage.
Don’t expect a magic wand to transform ownership of schools, but the results will likely build fresh pressure for further divestment of schools.
2024: A good year for ...
Irish pupils: They are among the best performers in maths across Europe and perform significantly above average in science.
Grind schools: Business is booming with the Institute of Education and the Dublin Academy of Education oversubscribed; not so good news for stressed out students and parents, though.
AI tools: Teachers discovered the joy of using ChatGPT to generate lesson plans within seconds. Amid concern over academic integrity involving students’ work, there was some hopeful news: Seán O’Sullivan, a fifth-year student at Coláiste Chiaráin, won the BT Young Scientist overall award for developing a new way of authenticating authorship in an era of AI tools.
... and a bad year for
University presidents: UL’s Prof Kerstin Mey and TU Dublin’s Prof David Fitzpatrick resigned this year amid fallout over various financial and governance issues.
Irish take-up: A record number of Leaving Cert students did not sit an Irish exam, while there are number of exemptions for the study of Irish is also climbing. Incidentally, there has also been a drop in the percentage of Leaving Cert candidates sitting exams in French (-10 per cent) and German (-3 per cent) in the last five years.
Science Foundation Ireland: It terminated the contract of its director general Prof Philip Nolan. Later, in a confidential court settlement, said there had been “no findings of misconduct or poor performance” made against him.
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