The Department of Education has privately projected that the number of Ukrainian students enrolled in schools may climb to more than 27,000 – a 50 per cent increase – by the end of the current school year.
While there is spare capacity at primary and second level nationally, there is more pressure at post-primary level due to a demographic bulge which is peaking at present.
There are just under 18,000 Ukrainian pupils enrolled in schools across the State, according to data compiled at the end of November.
Records released to The Irish Times under the Freedom of Information Act show officials estimated at the start of this 2023-24 school year that Ukrainian pupil numbers could climb to just over 27,400 next summer, or 17,655 at primary and 9,748 at second level.
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These estimates were based on the assumption that about 100 Ukrainians per day would continue to arrive into Ireland.
Unpublished contingency plans state that hotels, community centres and churches could be used for Ukrainian pupils on a short-term basis if there is no spare capacity in the education system
They predate the Government’s decision in recent weeks to limit the entitlement of Ukrainians arriving into Ireland to State-provided accommodation and social welfare. These measures are expected to reduce the volume of arrivals.
Unpublished contingency plans indicate that hotels, community centres and churches could be used for Ukrainian pupils on a short-term basis if there is no spare capacity in the education system.
Minister for Education Norma Foley said this was not her preference and students needed to be in school settings.
“I believe that children have a right to be educated in a school setting and integration should be very much part of that,” she said. “I firmly believe that’s how it should be.”
She acknowledged there were pressure points at second level, but paid tribute to school communities and Regional Educational and Language Teams, which have assisted in finding places for Ukrainian children and organising support.
“I do want to acknowledge the extraordinary generosity from school communities who have made it possible. The department has provided resources and additional staffing, and that’s very, very important,” she said.
Some teachers say additional learning and mental health supports for students are badly needed, especially in schools where new arrivals account for anything up to a third of all pupils
“But if the goodwill wasn’t there on the ground to make this work – from the staff who work every single day in the schools and, indeed, the students themselves – it never would have worked up to this point. It’s quite phenomenal to have around 18,000 students now in place,” she said.
The integration of Ukrainian pupils into Irish schools has generally been regarded as a success by most principals and school managers due in large part to the swift supply of additional teaching supports and school transport.
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Ireland has one of the highest school enrolment rates of Ukrainian children of any EU member state, with about 83 per cent of those of school-going age engaged in education.
An unexpected benefit has been that some small schools in regional areas with falling pupil numbers have managed to retain or gain teachers.
However, some teachers say additional learning and mental health supports for students are badly needed, especially in schools where new arrivals account for anything up to a third of all pupils.
Department surveys a year ago estimated that there were about 54,000 spare school places at primary level and 20,000 at second level.
Nonetheless, there has been pressure in local areas where there are large numbers in accommodated in hotels or other centres.
Under new Government measures that will apply to Ukrainians early in 2024, State accommodation will only be provided for up to 90 days.
I have visited schools the length and breadth of the country and … would say that they have been enriched beyond measure by students, not just from Ukraine, but indeed from many other countries
— Norma Foley
Some education observers say this could be disruptive to Ukrainian children who may start school but find themselves moving to another area within a short space of time.
Ms Foley said the evidence to date is that “parents take a certain amount of time before they transition their children into school”, which would limit disruption.
In the short term, she said the Department of Children will devise child-friendly sports and activities for students who arrive, while the Department of Education will offer guidance and support on schooling.
Ms Foley said Ukrainian students would continue to be welcome in our schools.
“I have visited schools the length and breadth of the country and the schools themselves, without exception, would say that they have been enriched beyond measure by students, not just from Ukraine, but indeed from many other countries,” she said.
