There was plenty of anxiety in households and apprehension in higher education circles in advance of the release of this year’s college offers on Wednesday afternoon.
The fear was yet another year of bumper grades – inflated to the same level as last year – would keep pressure on record high CAO points.
There were also worries over the potential use of random selection, a cruel lottery used by universities to select applicants for high-points courses when candidates are bunched together on high grades.
Yet, when offers issued there were sighs of relief among most families.
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Points actually fell across the majority – 60 per cent – of courses.
Even more significantly, the proportion of students who secured their dream courses increased.
A total of 59 per cent secured a first choice (up 5 per cent on last year), while 85 per cent received one of their top-three course preferences (up 4 per cent on last year).
The number of courses on random selection also fell, down from almost 50 last year to almost 20 this year.
On the face of it, it is paradoxical: grades have been maintained at last year’s high levels and the number of CAO applicants is almost identical to last year.
So, what happened?
Education observers believe that a combination of factors were at play this year.
While grades on the whole were the same as last year, an exception was higher level maths.
It, of course, was the subject of stinging controversy after many students protested that it was excessively unfair.
Last week’s Leaving Cert grades show the proportion of candidates who secured top grades in the subject fell significantly at higher level.
For example, the proportion of students who achieved a H1 (or an ‘A’ in old money) fell from 18 per cent last year to 11 per cent this year. This grade is worth 125 points, when the maths bonus is factored in.
Similarly, the proportion who achieved a H1-H3 (traditionally known as an “honour”) fell from 60 per cent last year to 49.5 per cent this year.
This meant there were thousands of fewer points washing around the system.
John McGinnity, guidance counsellor with the Institute of Education, estimates that the drop in the number of students who secured a H1 in maths was worth the equivalent of 20,000 points.
He points out that there is also a selection bias given that many students with H1s in maths normally apply for high points courses.
“This drop in points has a ripple effect through the entire system given the interdependencies between courses as it cascades down, reducing the points for those courses in the middle and lower ranges as it moves through,” says McGinnitty.
“So, while overall applicants to the CAO was relatively stable this year the change in the maths grade distribution, especially the lower number of H1s, did have a real effect.”
This was also clear in a breakdown of the points achieved by Leaving Cert candidates.
It shows that, while grades on the whole were similar to last year, there was a reduction in points at the top end.
For example, a total of just over 950 students, or 1.6 per cent of all students, achieved the maximum of 625 points this year. This is down from just over 1,120 students, or almost 2 per cent, last year.
Similarly, a total of almost 1,850 students, or 3 per cent of applicants, secured between 600-625 points this year. Similarly, this is down on just over 2,080 students who secured those points in 2022.
It wasn’t the only factor which drove down points.
In the health area, for example, it seems to have been a combination of newly-created college places and a post-Covid fall-off in demand for places.
For example, the Government has moved to create more than 400 new places in health courses this year in areas such as nursing and midwifery, medicine and the disciplines of occupational therapy, physiotherapy and speech and language therapy.
These new places, in addition to last year, finally seem to be having an impact on points requirements.
It is welcome news for many students who, for too long, have felt locked out of courses which they may have flourished in, but would never secure the points.
These trends offer a hopeful sign.
With ongoing investment in higher education, a lowering of grade inflation and the development of alternatives to the CAO, the system need not be as cruel as it has been in the past.
