Officials in the Department of Defence have been asked to cost a massive expansion of the Irish military, including the purchase of a squadron of jet fighters.
Shortly after taking office, Tánaiste and Minister for Defence Simon Harris instructed his officials to prepare a detailed breakdown of the financial implications of such an expansion.
The costings exercise comes as European countries rush to increase defence spending amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and suggestions from the Trump administration that it will no longer honour European security commitments.
In recent weeks, Mr Harris has repeatedly stated his desire to see Ireland’s defence budget, currently the lowest in the EU, increase three-fold in the years ahead.
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The costing exercise is the first known concrete step towards such a goal.
Under the proposals, the Irish Naval Service, which will soon be renamed the Irish Navy, will operate 12 ships, double the fleet. This would give Ireland “a defensive conventional maritime warfighting capability”.
[ Naval Service goes to sea without working guns as maritime threats mountOpens in new window ]
The Irish Air Corps, which will become the Irish Air Force, would acquire a squadron of aircraft capable of air combat and interception of airborne threats.
It would also involve a fleet of modern armoured vehicles for the Army, the establishment of a military intelligence school and a corps of 300 troops dedicated to cybersecurity.
All combat forces would be fully interoperable to Nato standards.
The move would be significantly more ambitious than the current Government commitment to increase defence spending by 50 per cent by 2028, one of the recommendations laid out by the Commission on the Defence Forces in its 2022 report.
This goal is termed Level of Ambition 2. Officials have now been asked to make preliminary plans to move past Level of Ambition 2 once it is achieved and on to Level of Ambition 3, which, according to the commission, would involve a defence budget of €3 billion.
This would bring Ireland’s defence spending to 1.4 per cent of gross national income, roughly in line with other small EU countries.
The commission contains rough cost estimates for such a military expansion, but it is understood Mr Harris wants more concrete numbers, taking factors such as inflation into account.
Defence sources stressed it will not be possible to move to Level of Ambition 3 before hitting Level of Ambition 2.
“The Defence Forces can’t absorb that much change at once,” said a senior military source. “It is already undergoing a massive programme of reform.”
For example, a primary military radar to detect airborne threats, something being worked on under Level of Ambition 2, would be required before any move could be made to purchase jet interceptors.
Sources also underlined the massive investment in infrastructure and training required to operate a combat air force.
“For every pilot in a plane you probably need at least 40 highly trained people on the ground in support,” said a senior officer. “One shouldn’t underestimate the scale of the task.”
Ambitions will also be dependent on attracting enough people into the Defence Forces and acquiring the necessary military equipment at a time when much of Europe is also rearming.
A spokesperson for the Department of Defence said reaching Level of Ambition 3 will “inevitably require a very significant increase in investment in the Defence Forces, not least in terms of the number of personnel required across the three services”.
They said the Government’s immediate objective is to reach Level of Ambition 2 before moving as quickly as possible to the third phase “with commensurate investment”.
