Unusually warm weather may be creating a “false sense of comfort” there will not be joint outbreaks of flu and Covid-19 cases this winter, HSE chief clinical officer Colm Henry has said.
Health authorities have expressed concerned about the effect of a “twindemic” – a severe flu season combined with another wave of Covid-19.
Flu and Covid-19 have not as yet significantly affected the wider hospital system, although University Hospital Galway last week asked the public not to visit the hospital if they were feeling unwell or had respiratory symptoms due to a flu outbreak and a high level of Covid-19 cases.
Health authorities have been informed by the experience of Australia’s winter when it experienced an earlier spike of flu cases during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer period.
Dr Henry said flu cases in Ireland were increasing but it was too early to say whether they had peaked yet. There were signs that the new Omicron subvariant BQ.1 was spreading, representing about 25 per cent of new cases, but it was no more virulent than more recent variants, he said.
“The unseasonably warm weather might give us a false sense of comfort that we are not going to see an impact on transmissible illness but that proposition remains untested,” said Dr Henry.
Temperatures in October were hotter than average, according to Met Éireann, and the weather is forecast to remain warmer than normal right through to the middle of this month.
Dr Henry said the variable that could change the situation is a “long-awaited cold snap”, with people moving indoors more, while higher fuel costs may encourage people to close windows to retain heat, preventing greater indoor ventilation leading to the further spread of infections. “Any clinician will tell you that once there is a cold snap you will see behaviours change in such a way that you will see a surge in transmissible illness, just as day follows night.”
He said the arrival of respiratory infections – respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) – particularly affecting children, happened earlier, in line with last year, but appeared to be abating.
“We are still seeing very uncomfortable scenes on trolleys, particularly in Limerick, Galway and Cork, which is really awful for patients, but we haven’t seen the worst of flu yet. We are probably seeing RSV pass. As for Covid, so far there is a new Omicron subvariant and while it has a growth advantage we don’t believe – based on what we know today – that it is going to cause significantly more illness than any previous variants,” he said.
University Hospital Galway said last week that it was dealing with a flu outbreak on one ward, with Covid-19 impacting a further four wards. Visits to affected wards are facilitated on compassionate grounds on an exceptional basis only.
The hospital’s manager, Chris Kane, appealed to people “to extend their Covid-19 vigilance to the flu”, telling the public not to visit the hospital if they had flu symptoms.
Last Wednesday the hospital had 34 confirmed Covid-19 cases, including seven new cases confirmed over the previous 24 hours, up from a total of 24 cases a week earlier.
Overall,the number of Covid-19 cases in hospital across the country fell from 486 on October 12th to 328 on Friday.
