Ireland is projected to achieve a reduction of just 23 per cent in total greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to a national target of 51 per cent, according to the latest Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) projections.
This widening performance gap represents a significant worsening on last year, when a 29 per cent reduction was projected by decade end after a fall in the country’s overall emissions of nearly 7 per cent in 2023.
“This widening gap to the emissions reduction target of 51 per cent in Ireland’s Climate Act is driven by updated information provided by Governmental bodies,” the EPA says. This data was factored into its modelling.
The latest data indicates none of the biggest emitting sectors – transport, agriculture, buildings and energy – will meet 2030 legally-binding targets. This is even unlikely to be achieved under the most optimistic scenarios, including full implementation of the Government’s climate action plan.
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Carbon budgets set by governments since 2021 to limit carbon will not be met. This increases the likelihood of the country facing multi-billion compliance costs imposed by the EU by the end of the decade. This will take the form of purchases of “emissions allocations” from other member states.
Some of the deterioration is attributed to better scientific indications factored into the analysis. Increasingly likely failure to meet targets on EVs, offshore wind and land use (especially forestry) are contributory factors, the EPA says.
“To achieve a reduction of 23 per cent would require full implementation of a wide range of policies and plans across all sectors and for these to deliver the anticipated carbon savings,” it states.
EPA director general Laura Burke said their projections show full delivery of all climate action plans and policies could deliver a 23 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. “Although emissions trends are going in the right direction, the gaps to our European and national emission reduction targets are now projected to be larger than last year,” she said.
“This highlights the economy-wide effort needed to decarbonise our society and the focus must shift from policy aspiration to practical implementation,” she added.
As 2030 draws nearer and there is more information on impacts of agreed policies and measures, Ms Burke said: “It is concerning to see projected reductions and lack of progress in the delivery of actions to reduce emissions, including electrification of our transport sector... expansion of renewable electricity powering our homes and businesses, and implementation of carbon reduction measures in agriculture”.
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Momentum is building for Ireland’s low-carbon society, she said, “but we need to accelerate it and scale up the transition”.
The 2021 carbon budget limiting emissions to 295 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent is now projected to be exceeded by between eight to 12 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The second budget is projected to be exceeded by a significant margin of 77 to 114 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
Total emissions from land use are projected to increase by up to 95 per cent, due mainly to forestry issues. High levels of harvesting and poor replacement rates of tree planting is a key issue, which means land will continue to be a large source of emissions rather than a carbon store.
Transport, industry and the buildings (including residential) sectors are projected to be the furthest from their sectoral emission ceilings in 2030, with emission reductions of up to 21 per cent, 12 per cent and 22 per cent respectively in the most optimistic scenarios. Agriculture emissions are projected to reduce by up to 16 per cent, instead of 25 per cent, by 2030.
