With Ireland continuing to warm due to climate change, there is a risk of multiple extreme weather events combining all at once, Met Éireann has warned in its climate report for last year.
Ireland’s overall warming trend continued in line with global warming, the report said, with seven of the top 10 warmest years on the island occurring since 2005 – last year was the fourth warmest year on record.
The year was mild overall, with the first half being wet followed by a dry second half. Though it was drier than usual, rainfall events were often more intense, while it was a duller year compared to 2023 with less sunshine.
Sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic Ocean “have continued at, or near, record high levels”, it found. This contributed to higher than average mean temperatures and increased moisture content over Ireland and more intense rainfall events.
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Although 2024 was drier than average, there were many instances of heavy or intense rainfall leading to flooding. “Compound events, which involve multiple climate impact drivers occurring at the same time, are on the rise,” the report said.
Met Éireann climatologist Paul Moore said: “2024 was Ireland’s fourth warmest year on record, even though it may not have always felt that way, especially during the cooler than average summer months.
“It was often cloudy during 2024 and this, along with continued high sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic, led to higher night-time temperatures being more influential, which drove the overall average temperatures up.”
The latest climate projections indicate further warming, he said. “This temperature change means the likelihood of extreme weather events occurring has increased.”
Irish rainfall patterns are expected to change with an increase in both dry periods and heavy rainfall events, Met Éireann said. With sea levels continuing to rise, “storm surge and coastal flooding risk around Irish coasts is expected to increase along with compound events”, notably a combination of heavy rainfall and high tides.
It is unclear how the frequency and intensity of storms affecting Ireland will change, the report said. “There is high confidence, however, that maximum rainfall rates associated with these storms will increase with warming.”
There were seven named storms affecting Ireland during 2024 with violent storm force winds recorded during storms Isha and Darragh. The strongest winds of the year occurred on December 6th during storm Darragh.
The average annual air temperature for Ireland in 2024 was 10.72 degrees (0.49 degrees cooler than 2023), the warmest year on record. Provisionally, rainfall was the 41st driest or 44th wettest since 1941.
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