The amount of people to die in Ireland due to excessive heat and from the cold is expected to significantly increase due to a combination of climate change and a rapidly ageing population, according to a major study published by the Lancet Public Health journal.
Irish heat-related deaths are currently estimated at 30 a year, but this figure could increase to as much as 563 deaths annually with 3 degrees of warming by 2100. Cold-related deaths in Ireland are currently 3,974 at present, and are projected to almost double to 7,696 deaths, mainly due to our ageing population.
The study finds that deaths from heat could triple right across across Europe, impacting mostly on people living in southern parts of the Continent.
Data, mainly from 854 European cities including Dublin, indicate heat-related deaths are likely to be exacerbated as populations age over coming decades in many European countries. Ireland will not escape this trend, the study finds, especially in a scenario where global average temperatures increase by 3 degrees this century, as predicted in more extreme climate modelling scenarios.
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About eight times more people currently die in Europe from cold than heat, but the ratio is projected to decrease greatly by century end, though not in Ireland. The study estimates hot and cold temperatures currently lead to 407,538 deaths across Europe each year, with 363,809 related to cold and 43,729 to heat.
“A slight decline in cold-related deaths [during winter] is projected by 2100, while deaths from heat will increase in all parts of Europe, most significantly in southern regions. Areas worst affected will include Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France,” it adds.
The findings highlight “the need to strengthen policies to limit global warming to protect vulnerable regions and members of society from the effects of higher temperatures”.
In recent years Europe has experienced some of its hottest summers, which have coincided with high mortality rates.
Overall, with 3 degrees global warming – an upper estimate based on current climate policies – the number of heat-related deaths in Europe could increase from 43,729 to 128,809 by the end of the century.
In the same scenario deaths attributed to cold – currently much higher than from heat – would remain high with a slight decrease from 363,809 to 333,703 by 2100.
Dr Juan-Carlos Ciscar, of the Joint Research Centre at the European Commission, said: “Our analysis reveals the ratio of cold-heat deaths will shift dramatically over the course of this century, with those attributed to heat increasing in all parts of Europe and surging in some areas.”
The authors used data on 1,368 regions in 30 European countries to model present disparities in deaths from hot and cold temperatures.
With 3 degrees warming temperature-related deaths are projected to rise by 13.5 per cent, leading to 55,000 more deaths each year, driven by an increase in deaths from heat. Most deaths will be among people aged over 85 years.
Moderate reductions in cold-related deaths are predicted in most countries. However they are estimated to increase in Ireland (where they will almost double), Norway and Sweden; all of which are predicted to see large increases in citizens aged 85 years and older.
Prof Patrick Goodman of TU Dublin said: “In many parts of Europe, as in Ireland, more people die in winter than summer. But we do see spikes in hot weather in summer too. This paper shows that if temperatures continue to rise that overall there will be reduced winter deaths but increased deaths in summer.”
With an ageing Irish population he said there would be more “at risk” people. The study was based on a general rise in temperatures, “but heatwave events could give rise to spikes in addition to what projections are presented in the paper”.
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