Rejoice! It’s everyone’s favourite pointless post-Oscars pastime. I again attempt to predict next year’s best picture nominee (almost) sight unseen. It says something about the business that I usually get at least 50 per cent correct. Not last year. Not after making an incredibly dumb mistake. I had Poor Things in my predictions for the 2022 releases – its original release date – but, following a delay to 2023, doubts set in and I took it out. Too bizarre for even the current sassy electorate, I thought. You know how that worked out. It ended up the second most nominated movie and the second biggest winner. I will not be making that mistake with a Yorgos Lanthimos film this year.
We ended up with just four right: Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro (the three prestige pictures) and Past Lives (the reliable, already screened Sundance hit). Dune Part Two was delayed. John Carney’s Flora and Son, flogged to Apple at Sundance, went under the radar. The Killer wasn’t a mad choice. Napoleon was always risky. May December ended up with just one nomination. Priscilla deserved better. Must try harder.
What should we have seen coming? Yes, stop saying “Poor Things”. American Fiction was barely in the headlights. Barbie seemed like a huge punt. Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers really should have been on our list. The Zone of Interest, like Poor Things, sounded too out there, but, again, the electorate is not so stuffy as it once was. There will certainly be another unguessable surprise like Anatomy of a Fall in this year’s Cannes competition.
As ever release dates may change. Though the chaos the pandemic played with this game is now in the rear-view mirror. Almost nobody thinks Quentin Tarantino’s The Critic will be ready. A few brave souls are betting on Paul Thomas Anderson’s Untitled New Project arriving by Christmas, but I can’t see it. We have taken a swipe on at least one title that may not be here until 2025. It is a game after all. And, no, we’re not betting the farm on Gladiator II.
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In no particular order ...
Dune Part Two
Directed by Denis Villeneuve
“But you’ve seen this and weren’t all that keen!” I hear you wail. It doesn’t really matter what I think. The first one got a nomination and scored the most wins at the ceremony. Reviews for the latest were, if anything, even more positive. So there is absolutely no reason not to include it in this list. After all, it was in last year before worries about the actors’ strike kicked it into 2024.
A Real Pain
Directed by Jesse Eisenberg
Hello, Coda? Hello, Poor Things? Yes, it’s our annual pick from the buzzier releases at Sundance. Eisenberg’s second film as director – after the underappreciated When You Finish Saving the World – casts the director and Kieran Culkin as cousins touring Poland in honour of a much-loved grandmother from that part of Europe. Won the Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award at the festival and was universally loved. “A delight and a revelation”, Variety raved.
Blitz
Directed by Steve McQueen
Many smart people’s most anticipated release of 2024, Blitz, as the title suggests, sees McQueen going among bombed Londoners during the second World War. Little is known about the plot, but we do know that Saoirse Ronan, Stephen Graham, Kathy Burke and (no really) Paul Weller are among the ensemble. Sounds as if it might be a daisy chain of interlocking stories. Finished shooting over a year ago. So could well be a Cannes premiere.
Kind of Kindness
Directed by Yorgos Lanthimos
Look, I know it sounds as if this could be one of Lanthimos’s more oblique exercises, but I am not making the Poor Things error again. Shot reasonably quickly with some members of Poor Things cast – Emma Stone, Margaret Qualley, Willem Dafoe – the film is rumoured to be an anthology set in the present-day US. Usual personnel. Our own Ed Guiney and Andrew Lowe are among the producers for Element. Robbie Ryan is behind the camera. They haven’t missed yet.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Directed by George Miller
What do you need to know? Anya Taylor-Joy plays the young Furiosa in a prequel to Fury Road. Chris Hemsworth and Tom Burke are also on board. The last one got a best picture nomination and won the most awards that night. I was in the press room. The first two hours were all Australians with little gold men. Given the release date of May 24th and Miller’s association with Cannes, seems certain to premiere by the Med.
Joker: Folie à Deux
Directed by Todd Phillips
Yes, I know. What are the odds of three sequels to three action films making it in? Surely, one of Joker, Furiosa or Dune isn’t going to be here. But which? Folie à Deux, a sort-of musical, could be a slam dunk or a total disaster. The last film alienated a lot of critics, but Phoenix won the best actor Oscar and (incredibly) the film took the Golden Lion at Venice. The October 4th opening suggests another premiere on the Lido.
Maria
Directed by Pablo Larraín
In what feels like the completion of a trilogy – the lonely lady cycle? – after Jackie (Kennedy) and (Diana) Spencer, the Chilean director trains his eye on Maria Callas. Angelina Jolie plays the opera singer during her final days in 1970s Paris. May be a stretch. The previous two got nominations for their leads, but not for the films. Still, it will be in the hunt. Larraín is a Venice regular. No reason to think he’s going anywhere else.
We Live in Time
Directed by John Crowley
After the success of Brooklyn, Crowley got drawn into the talent crusher that was The Goldfinch. Happily, that experience doesn’t seem to have held him back. Five years later he returns with a romance starring Florence Pugh and Andrew Garfield. The cast is Oscar-friendly. Crowley has the chops. Writer Nick Payne boasts a starry theatre CV. Reliable indie studio A24 has picked it up for US distribution. Let’s run it up the flag and see if 2025 salutes.
Nightbitch
Directed by Marielle Heller
Yes, we shouldn’t let personal feelings into these things, but we loved all three of Heller’s films: The Diary of a Teenage Girl, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood. Rachel Yoder’s homonymous novel, concerning a frustrated mum who turns into a dog, is an absolute corker. Amy Adams stars. What’s not to savour. If it’s good, the challenging material shouldn’t worry the electorate that voted for Zone of Interest.
Bird
Directed by Andrea Arnold
You don’t think the academy would go for the Kentish provocateur? Well they gave her an Oscar for her short Wasp back in 2003. True, her features haven’t since troubled the voters, but the combination of Barry Keoghan and Franz Rogowski sounds too thrilling to turn down. Robbie Ryan (that man again) is back with his one of his most long-term collaborators. No details on plot, but we’d bet on more poetic naturalism.
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