As Janus Studios looks back at the receding year and seeks lessons for the forthcoming 12 months, that imaginary institution may find both of its heads spinning. What on earth did 2021 tell us about the future of cinema? What must you do to prosper in this changed environment?
Here is lesson number one. All other lessons dwindle in importance. You should be Chinese. It obviously would be nice if you can appeal to the rest of the world, but that is not strictly necessary. What were the two highest-grossing films of 2021? You're muttering about Marvel and James Bond, aren't you? No, the chart toppers this year were The Battle at Lake Changjin at number one and Hi, Mom (not the ancient Brian De Palma flick) at number two. Both are productions of the People's Republic.
The US bias in box-office journalism (arguably the most boring of all journalisms) has somewhat occluded the success of No Time to Die
Lest you believe the theory that theatrical exhibition is dead, note that The Battle at Lake Changjin, the story of a Chinese victory over the Americans in the Korean War, is the highest-grossing film ever not in the English language. The stubborn prevalence of Covid elsewhere in the world contributed to Lake Changjin’s triumph in the yearly chart, but it is riding a wave that has been swelling for a decade. The top six highest-grossing non-Anglophone films in the medium’s history are all Mandarin features released since 2017. None has accrued more than a few coppers outside its home country. This is not a pandemic story. For the first time since pioneers set up tripods in the Hollywood Hills, the United States’s financial domination of cinema has been properly challenged. The Chinese films may not translate across borders as well as James Bond, but who cares if your biggest movie can trouser $130 million more than 007’s total on Chinese takings alone.
There is another lesson about the international nature of the business in the Bond story. The US bias in box-office journalism (arguably the most boring of all journalisms) has somewhat occluded the success of No Time to Die. That film was only the sixth highest grosser in North America – arguably "underperforming" there – but it passed out F9 to become the biggest English-language movie of 2021 worldwide. The message here is not really about the venerable secret agent. The moral is that, more than ever before, this is an international business. If you can't actually be Chinese (and only 1.4 billion people can) then you should try to produce films that appeal to markets outside the 50 states.
There is some comfort further down the chart for our Californian moguls. Other Chinese titles make sporadic appearances, but the top 50 is still largely an American affair. Hollywood may not be making the most lucrative films but it is still supplying the poor bloody infantry with its cinematic rations. Those films are not making what they once did but the studios can plead “special circumstances”.
It is the flops rather than the hits that will cause most furrowing of brows in the industry. Nobody seems sure if Dune Part One actually made a profit, but, like all Warner Bros films, released simultaneously to stream in the US, it took just about enough to qualify as a "Covid-era" hit and justify the concluding part that is, indeed, on its way. King Richard, starring Will Smith as father of the Williams sisters, definitely did underperform, but, another Warner release, it was available to stream in the US on HBO Max.
Almost no prognosticator within the Anglophone mainstream media will be able to accurately guess the highest-grossing film of 2022. We will need our Chinese colleagues' help on that
The initial sluggish performance of West Side Story, which was available only in cinemas, is perhaps the most interesting case here. By the time you read this, Steven Spielberg’s ecstatically received musical may – as was the case with the recent The Greatest Showman – have gradually accumulated some sort of haul, but, even if that proves so, there is no denying the softness of its opening weekend. Variety described its $10.5 million domestic debut as “a dismal result”.
The trade paper went on to diagnose a key cause of the slump. “The biggest obstacle facing West Side Story is – and will continue to be – convincing older audiences to go to theatres,” Rebecca Rubin wrote. The good(ish) news is that those audiences are more likely to come after opening weekend than younger punters. The bad news is there is still something standing in their way. “It’s the main demographic that hasn’t returned in full force since the pandemic,” Rubin continued.
So, another unavoidable lesson of the year in cinema is that we are still in a pandemic. It will eventually go away. But the industry has no idea when. It may have gone by next Christmas when, because he is never to be underestimated, James Cameron may deliver another smash with Avatar 2. It may have gone in time for Top Gun: Maverick in the summer.
One thing we can say with some certainty. Almost no prognosticator within the Anglophone mainstream media will be able to accurately guess the highest-grossing film of 2022. We will need our Chinese colleagues’ help on that.
