The publication of the latest United Nations report on climate change was overshadowed by the outbreak of war in Ukraine. The conclusions still demand urgent consideration.
There have been increases in extreme weather events. Droughts are causing more food insecurity. Floods are threatening communities everywhere. Given the ever increasing number of desperately difficult challenges, a response of futility or weariness could be tempting to some.
That is not a realistic option. These challenges are too dangerous. Instead, we need hope and commitment. Supercharge Me offers a recipe for this positive response to the challenge of climate change. The authors are well qualified for making this case. Eric Lonergan is an Irish economist and co-author of the superb Angrynomics. Corinne Sawers is an adviser to governments and businesses on environmental sustainability.
The format is unusual, a dialogue between the authors. I was initially sceptical, concerned that substance would be trumped by speed. This fear was unfounded. The authors interrogate difficult issues thoroughly. The questions are relevant and the answers are clear and succinct.
A simple but incredibly ambitious objective is set. It is to “propose a set of measures that can accelerate this process of global economic and social change, and in a way that ensures most people will experience immediate benefits”.
The concept of supercharging is central to how decarbonisation can be radically accelerated.
To achieve such speed, the authors argue for Epic (Extreme Positive Incentives for Change) decisions. These policies create extreme benefits, offer incentives, and ensure positive benefits and, by doing all of this, create a momentum for change. The more powerful the incentive, the more likely the possibility of significant behavioural change. This approach has already made a difference.
For example, between 2004 and 2010 the global market for solar panels has grown 30-fold. This change was enabled through the deployment of large subsidies to manufacturers.
The authors reject fatalism, contending that change is never impossible or too late. There are two reasons for their optimism.
First, the private sector is responding, at scale, to the challenge of transitioning to a lower carbon future. Corporations recognise that climate change is a massive risk to their profitability and, for some, viability. Many companies have also identified opportunities.
Changes in regulation are also forcing the change with environmental, social and governance regulations making a difference.
The conclusion of Supercharged is that “Social norms are changing, regulatory changes have been introduced, and stocks perceived to be environmentally friendly have outperformed the market.”
The second reason for their optimism is their view that this transition will enhance, not diminish, living standards, with losses concentrated among wealthy owners of fossil fuel assets.
Lonergan and Sawers argue that “An investment boom… is very likely to make most of the global population better off, and the states that fund it will be wealthier.”
The authors argue for a change in incentives in many different policies. However, they prioritise one choice above all others, the decarbonisation of electricity.
The authors then develop strategies to change behaviour by segmenting society according to levels of motivation. Convince a minority, social norms will then change and a majority should follow.
Government-led change should occur, it is argued, as higher levels of government expenditure are paid for by higher levels of public borrowing.
We need optimism. It is in very short supply at the moment
Global change could be led by new institutions. Typically, Supercharged makes the case for progress already achieved. India, for example, grew its solar power capacity 13-fold between 2014 and 2020. But this change needs worldwide acceleration. According to the United Nations, the cost of adapting to climate change will rise from $70 billion (€63.8 billion) today to about $500 billion by 2050.
Existing global institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund could be re-mandated to respond to this challenge. The new strategy “should be to empower and supercharge existing institutions, and turn the focus to the climate challenge”.
We need optimism. It is in very short supply at the moment. But, Sawers and Lonergan do not give sufficient acknowledgment to trade-offs. If instantly beneficial policy decisions were easily available then more countries would be pursuing them.
It is true to say that the ownership of assets that may become “stranded” due to climate-driven economic change are concentrated among the few. But change, not all easy, for the majority is required. The recently published Irish carbon budgets attest to this reality.
The recipe for global change gives little recognition of the political forces that make such change so incredibly difficult.
A fuller acknowledgment of these challenges could have strengthened this Supercharged narrative. It would not have diminished the case for change and could have pushed the authors to even stronger arguments.
We need books like this. An excess of hope hardly feels like a damning criticism in these times of challenge.
Paschal Donohoe is the Minister for Finance and president of the Eurogroup
