Pandering to EU consumer unease about genetically modified (GM) foods could come at a colossal price for the European Commission which had staunchly resisted calls for more extensive labelling and evaluation of such produce, according to Brussels-based lawyer, Mr Raymond O'Rourke.
Events of the past week have increased the likelihood that the world's main GM food producer, the US, will force its hand through the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to overcome growing access problems to European markets.
There have been clear indications of growing US unease. President Clinton intervened in September with the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, in an attempt to prevent the British halting GM food production, while the US government was threatening to bring trade sanctions against France for deferring a decision on ratifying new strains of GM maize and rapeseed - three member-states have bans on GM produce in defiance of the Commission.
Consumer pressure, however, is largely believed to have led to Industry Commissioner, Mr Martin Bangemann, conceding last week that much more extensive labelling, to include additives derived from such produce, must be introduced. Meanwhile, Consumer Affairs Commissioner, Ms Emma Bonino signalled that EU legislation would be introduced to ensure consumers have access to foods guaranteed free of genetically modified organisms.
Mr O'Rourke, who has written a book on the dramatic strengthening of EU food law prompted by the BSE crisis, believes the Commission's problems relate to the issue "running ahead" of effective legislation being in place. This has been compounded by attempts to re-examine labelling which had opened a Pandora's box.
Should the Codex Alimentarius Commission (the international body which sets food standards) rule GM foods do not involve food safety concerns - as is likely - it would allow US multinationals who have invested heavily in biotechnology to push for greater access to EU states.
More than likely, the US government would be behind them at WTO panel level, claiming discrimination and highlighting this gene technology's position at the forefront of science, not to mention its increasingly central role in global agricultural production.
The issue of hormone use in beef production (which is allowed in the US) underlined how precarious a position the Commission may find itself it, he added. It has lost the argument at WTO panel level and has 15 months to justify its human health concerns. If at that point nothing is found to scientifically justify its stance and it still wants to keep European beef hormone-free, it will cost. It will have to pay substantially in terms of the complex process of trade-offs with the US, claimed Mr O'Rourke, an associate of Stanbrook and Hooper law firm.
The Commission cannot have it both ways. If, as it has said, it is going to defend consumer interests, it has to have a concerted campaign through the Codex inter-governmental process to change the system of establishing international food standards, Mr O'Rourke said. The same applied for GM foods.
With GM foods stakes so high in terms of investment in the technology, the US may not accept a trade-off outcome; leading to the possibility of a trade war. In the meantime, the EU is stalling on urgently needed legislation while insisting it is addressing consumer concerns, he said.
Inconsistency was symptomatic of the extent of difficulties and confusion. "It is aware of consumers concerns, which should be addressed, but does not seem to be moving quickly enough to establish a regime where the consumer can be confident about the products on the supermarket shelf."
He said the fact that industry and retailers were voluntarily informing their customers through various initiatives was an indictment of the Commission. "It shows the vacuum there, created by the EU, not anybody else." This contrasts with its response to BSE, which led to decisive action with consumer protection and food safety becoming a central feature of EU food legislation.
European Food Law by Raymond O'Rourke, published by Palladian Law Publishing (£38 sterling), is available in main bookshops.
