CIARA O’BRIEN Twitter’s user base is set to grow by almost 25 per cent this year, despite concerns over its ability to maintain its popularity.
New data from independent research firm Emarketer indicates the social service will continue to log double-digit growth up until 2018, with Twitter gaining popularity in emerging markets and reaching 400 million users within four years.
The research will be a boost for the social network, which has been the subject of speculation that it may not be able to keep up its pace of growth.
But it wasn’t all good news for Twitter. Emarketer’s research also indicates that the service may have less active monthly users than it thinks. According to Twitter’s official figures, there are more than 220 million active monthly users, but Emarketer’s research put the figure at 183 million, because it relies on consumer data to discount multiple accounts, business accounts and other potential double-counting.
According to the research, the number of Twitter users in the Asia-Pacific region has already outgrown those in the US and Western Europe. In 2014, Asia-Pacific is set to account for almost a third of Twitter’s users, compared with 23.7 per cent in North America. By 2018, that will rise to 40 per cent, according to Emarketer’s projections.
The figures do not take into account potential growth in China, due to an official block on the service in the country. But many users find a way around the ban. If China was to list its block, Emarketer said that share would rise significantly.
The microblogging service is also banned in North Korea and Iran, and has been temporarily blocked in Turkey and Pakistan on occasion.
“We believe that Twitter needs to take significant steps to increase its usage, but we think that it will gain some traction in the second half of the year,” said Emarketer analyst Deborah Aho-Williamson.
“Even without including China, Twitter is much stronger in Asia-Pacific than many people believe. This is due to the strong usage growth in India and Indonesia, which will be Twitter’s third- and fourth-largest markets (after the US and Japan) this year.”
The figures indicate that Indonesia will see a 61.7 per cent growth in Twitter users, while India will increase almost 57 per cent, eclipsing more established markets such as the UK in terms of the number of users. That compares to 11.6 per cent growth in the US this year, and with further potential for significant growth.
In fact, growth in the US could shrink to single digit figures next year, with Emarketer predicting growth of just 9.1 per cent in 2015. It will still top the list in terms of overall user numbers, growing from 48.2 million this year to 64.9 million users by 2018; however, as a percentage of internet users, the US is ranked sixth with 19.2 per cent of internet users on Twitter this year, compared to 27.3 per cent in the UK and 20.8 per cent in Canada.
Worldwide, only 8 per cent of internet users will be on Twitter this year, with that figure growing to 11.2 per cent by 2018. Indonesia, meanwhile, will see its penetration growing from 18.3 per cent this year to 37.1 per cent in four years’ time.
“It is important to remember that trends in the US do not mirror trends in the rest of the world when it comes to Twitter usage,” said Ms Aho-Williamson. “Twitter’s emerging strength in developing markets like these will be important to watch in the coming months and years.”
