Is the TINA trade – There Is No Alternative to stocks in a low-rate world – in trouble?
Bond yields have spiked recently, with 10-year yields in the United States jumping from 0.5 per cent last August to almost 1.6 per cent. Many yield-starved income investors forced into equities may be tempted to reverse course, cautions Bank of America's Savita Subramanian, with history suggesting 1.75 per cent is the "tipping point".
Technology stocks offering the allure of growth have seen valuations balloon, so they have, unsurprisingly, been the big losers in the recent sell-off; the tech-heavy Nasdaq has fallen into correction territory, while momentum favourite Tesla has lost a third of its value.
Bulls argue that rates are rising for the right reasons, namely higher economic growth expectations. Indeed, a higher 10-year yield has historically been extremely bullish for stocks, says LPL Research, especially since the mid-1990s.
Still, elevated stock valuations have long been justified on the basis that equities looked tempting relative to bonds; given the sheer pace of the bond market about-turn, it’s little wonder some equity investors are having second thoughts.
