Most fund managers (62 per cent) expect European stocks to rise 5-10 per cent in 2022, according to a Bank of America survey.
Such expectations are not surprising: like fund managers, analysts invariably forecast high single-digit annual percentage gains – and they may seem reasonable. After all, history shows US stocks have averaged long-term annualised gains of 10 per cent.
However, average gains are actually very rare. Data from Ritholtz Wealth Management's Ben Carlson shows there have been only five years since 1926 where the S&P 500 gained 8-12 per cent. Indeed, there have been as many yearly returns above 40 per cent as returns in the 8-12 per cent range.
Less than one year in five has seen gains of 5-15 per cent. Most years (59 per cent) enjoy double-digit gains. Indeed, gains topped 20 per cent in more than a third of all years. Stocks have fallen in a quarter of all years.
Extreme returns are normal and average returns are rare. Don’t be surprised if 2022 is a wilder ride than the calm year envisaged by fund managers.
