Information pack debacle fuels housing fears

London Briefing: Is Britain's booming housing market on the brink of collapse?

London Briefing:Is Britain's booming housing market on the brink of collapse?

The answer to that dinner-party perennial is, according to a growing number of pundits, most certainly yes. Less than 24 hours ago some even claimed to know exactly when the crash would begin - on June 1st, 2007.

Before the government's humiliating climbdown in the House of Commons yesterday afternoon, June 1st was to have been the date for the controversial Home Information Packs (Hips) to become compulsory for all house sellers.

Now, following lengthy and widespread protests from the industry and homeowners, and little more than a week before they were to become set in legal stone, the introduction of the packs has been put off until August 1st.

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Even then, they will be applied initially only to homes of four bedrooms and above, which account for fewer than one in five homes, rather than to all properties.

To jeers from opposition MPs yesterday, communities secretary Ruth Kelly admitted the scheme was simply not workable in its present form.

Almost three-quarters of the 2,000 or so inspectors required to oversee the packs have yet to be trained, despite repeated assurances from the government in recent weeks that training was up to schedule.

Designed to reduce the stress and delays inherent in a property sale, Hips are prepared by the vendor and provided free of charge to potential purchasers.

The packs were to include a sale statement giving basic information about the property and an energy performance certificate, which rates the property on its energy efficiency as well as its impact on the environment, together with the usual searches and evidence of title.

Dogged by controversy since they were first mooted 10 years ago, they were supposed to assist sellers by reducing the likelihood of any "nasty surprises" that might delay the sale, while enabling buyers to make "more informed" decisions.

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) took the unprecedented step of launching a legal challenge against them, while estate agents say they have already created havoc in the market.

Although the initial requirement for a survey to be included had already been dropped, the Hips were still expected to cost anything between £300 and £500 a go.

In what some fear is a re-run of the 1988 housing bubble - when the then chancellor Nigel Lawson sparked a rush to buy when he axed dual tax relief on mortgages - there are signs that sellers have been rushing to beat the Hips deadline. Stretching that deadline for another two months looks certain to create more confusion in the housing market.

The Lawson bubble was swiftly followed by a huge hike in interest rates, sparking a collapse in the market. Many of those who rushed to buy lost their homes or saw their value crumble.

Putting the Hips debacle aside, those who believe the housing market has now peaked are pointing to the £390 million sale earlier this week of the London estate agency chain, Foxtons. Founded 26 years ago, the 19-branch business has been bought by private equity firm BC Partners in a deal that will make founder Jon Hunt one of Britain's wealthiest men.

Hunt, known for his aggressive tactics in the cut-throat house-selling business, is planning to turn his attentions - and his millions - to the US real estate arena instead.

But he denies he is getting out at the top of the market, saying he expects prices in the capital to carry on rising.

Comparing London to Venice in the 15th century - "all the traders and their entourages will want to be here" - he told London's Evening Standardnewspaper yesterday that house prices here are set to become "very silly".

Not all are convinced, however, and there is undeniable evidence of a slowdown in the market: mortgage lending was below average last month and is expected to weaken further in the months ahead as higher interest rates take their toll.

While many commentators believe Britain's booming housing market is heading, if not for a crash, then at least for a correction, the "Hips displacement" on its own is unlikely to be the catalyst.

With the average price of a house in Britain now topping £200,000, the cost of the packs is minimal and they should at least serve to weed the time-wasters out of the market.

You can bet, too, that estate agents will do everything they can to ensure the market keeps moving: expect a rash of "free Hips" deals, offered on a no sale, no fee basis.

And, as economists point out, if homeowners really do abandon plans to move as a result, then the subsequent shortage of property would simply serve to push prices higher still. The crash may be a little way off yet.

Fiona Walsh writes for the Guardian newspaper in London

Fiona Walsh

Fiona Walsh writes for the Guardian