On the surface it's as if the pro-democracy protests of late 2014 never happened in Hong Kong. People rush around, consuming like crazy, with job ads everywhere amid a simmering economy.
But a lot has changed. While the protests have stopped, this doesn’t mean the causes of the demonstrations – such as a perceived lack of democratic representation for the citizenry, or dissatisfaction with government’s approach to calls for more representation – have gone away.
The former British colony returned to China in 1997, complete with an apparent promise of eventual universal suffrage. Beijing has allowed a free vote for city leader in 2017 but insists on screening candidates.
Sales growth stopped
Naturally, some companies are blaming the protests for short-term slowdowns, in the fourth quarter. The luxury retailer
Burberry
, which relies on Hong Kong for 10 per cent of its global sales, said fourth-quarter sales were hit by the pro-democracy protests.
Richemont, which makes Cartier and Jaeger-LeCoultre watch brands, said weak demand in Hong Kong and Macau had stopped sales growth in the quarter.
Also, the crackdown on corruption in China is not helping luxury sales in Hong Kong. There is little scope for government officials to splash the cash in Hong Kong any more, and that’s hurting retailers, especially luxury goods retailers, although the group tourism market remains robust and outlets stores and mid-market shops, of which there are too few in mainland China, are doing well.
Hong Kong’s richest person, Li Ka-shing, has urged lawmakers to pass the controversial, Beijing-imposed reforms that will change how the territory’s leader is elected.
The government hopes to pass reforms enabling public elections for the territory’s leader in 2017. Under the reforms a committee will nominate candidates who will run for the post. They need to be approved by Beijing.
First step
Mr Li
, whose wealth
Forbes
estimates at $33.5 billion (€28.9 billion), has said the damage to Hong Kong could be “immeasurable” if they were blocked. “This is the first step,” he said. “If there’s no first step, then where is the second step? How can we push forward democracy?”
The message is that the Beijing-approved document is the only one Hong Kong is going to get, so it had better do its best to get onside with it.
Chief executive CY Leung has left no doubt about his loyalties. He is keen to expand Hong Kong's ties with the mainland, including enhanced ties with China's capital markets, and further develop the offshore yuan market.
Researchers for the report have said a narrow economy, built mainly on the real estate and finance sectors for the past three decades, has led to “restrained earnings growth and social mobility”.
The report urges a greater focus on technology and innovation, as well as restructuring of the city’s economy by boosting creative industries and focusing on vocational training and research development.
As in Ireland, young people have higher expectations after years of strong economic growth. They "have been raised in a better environment and are better educated," the report said. "They have heightened expectations for career and life."
As Mr Leung put it: "As we pursue democracy we should act in accordance with the law, or Hong Kong will degenerate into anarchy."
