Could Brexit be the cause of marriage break-ups in the North if it goes ahead?
According to one organisation that represents farmers, the debate over whether Britain should stay in the European Union is "pitching husbands and wives against each other across the North".
Ian Marshall, president of the Ulster Farmers' Union (UFU) says Brexit is causing splits within families because people are approaching the issue from the perspective both of their "heads and with their hearts".
“Husbands and wives are completely opposed,” Marshall has declared going on to explain that one partner may believe that staying in Europe guarantees an element of market security while the other may be worried about losing their UK identity.
Northern Ireland farmers have not always had a love affair with Europe. They have long argued there is too much red tape and bureaucracy – and not enough help when they need it – pointing to the the current dairy crisis as just one example.
But they have never been unhappy enough with the EU to actively petition for a divorce and the UFU is still not convinced it might be the best option for farmers in the North. The farming body’s stance at the moment is, “given the circumstances and knowledge we have, to stay”.
Yet this approach is unlikely to resolve heated arguments in some farming homes. Tradition, politics and money, as Northern Ireland well knows, are a powerful mix and Brexit brings them all to the table all wrapped up in bread and butter (not to mention meat, milk, pork etc) issues.
Subsidies
By far the biggest issue for farmers is how they would fare if the subsidies they currently get from the EU – which in many cases keep their farms viable – suddenly dried up.
Local farmers and other landowners received £349 million in EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) payments in 2013-14. Marshall and the farming community are rightly worried that if Brexit goes ahead, whether the UK government would step up and replace this funding?
There are no guarantees that it would, the farmers’ group says. Hence the reason its president and others like him have “huge concerns” about what a post-Brexit landscape could look like for farmers.
There are an estimated 24,900 farms in Northern Ireland employing around 48,000 people. Last year, many of these farms did not make money. Latest figures show total farming income dropped to £183 million.
While advocates of Brexit argue that the UK government could be free to direct substantial financial support to local farmers if it pulled out of Europe, it appears nobody would bet the family farm on it.
Marshall and the UFU's chief executive Wesley Aston told the House of Common's Northern Affairs Committee last week that the UK government had a less than generous track record when it came to providing additional support to farmers in the UK.
They highlighted that when there had been opportunities for the British government to legitimately add to EU subsidies or participate in a match payments scheme in the past, they had not done so.
Stalemate
According to the UFU, what farmers and the communities they support need now is information and guarantees about their future to help them make an informed decision about what the reality of Brexit could be. In the absence of this they find themselves in a stalemate which, for some, means delaying investment decisions.
As Marshall highlighted to the committee, the UK may be an important trading partner when it comes to farming exports but there is nothing to stop the remaining 27 member states trying to fill the food gap if the UK leaves.
“They are not completely dependent on the UK for their survival,” he warned.
Even more crucial for local farmers are the mounting, unanswered questions over what would be the impact on Northern Ireland’s food and drink exports to the Republic?
Nobody has any answers and that more than anything is one of the most the alarming aspects for the North’s farming communities when it comes to the looming referendum.
