The Greek agony continues. Signs point to a some kind of an ad hoc fix to keep the country in the euro but it's a mess. There is no deal.

The deferral until June 30th of a €300 million repayment due today to the International Monetary Fund -- and the deferral until then of a further €1.32 billion in payments due by June 19th -- only adds to the sense of anxiety and uncertainty

At this sorry point in the saga, there are as many theories as observers.

One notion is that the Syriza government’s idiosyncratic negotiating style has its root in a strategy to convince creditors that it would indeed go so far as to detonate the “Grexit” bomb if it does not get what it wants.

Whatever the truth of that, the financial and political temperature in Athens is rising rapidly.

Deposit flight from the country’s addled banks last Friday alone is said to have reached €1 billion.

This further erodes the collateral required for more than €100 billion in emergency European Central Bank aid, leading to increased expectation of capital controls among global banks.

"Further damage to the economy, banking system and confidence may well lead to this outcome, especially if accompanied by policy mistakes," says Morgan Stanley.

“This scenario can take many forms, depending on whether capital controls are introduced because of a decision by the Greek government to miss a payment, or to stop deposit outflows, given prolonged uncertainty and/or a worsening economy.”

Although the political negotiation resumes today, the situation is chaotic. After late-night talks in Brussels wrapped up early yesterday, prime minister Alexis Tsipras said a deal was "within sight".

The chief of the euro zone finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who took part in the talks, insisted the differences were "still quite large" but pointed to the remaining issues being narrowed down.

In sum, the gap remains. "We made some progress yesterday night, not sufficient, but nevertheless trying to put together the elements proposed by our Greek colleagues and friends and our own ideas," said Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission.

Some way apart

“The outcome from last night’s Tsipras/Juncker/Dijsselbloem meeting confirms they are still some way apart.

“What is ‘done’ is that the creditors have ironed out their differences, and concluded that the time is ripe to deliver a proposal.

"Don't call it an ultimatum. Don't say 'take it or leave it', but that is effectively what it is," says Swiss bank UBS.

“Some sources were downplaying the finality of it last night, calling it a ‘roadmap’, but be assured that room for manoeuvre and tolerance on dragging this out are both now rather limited.

The really difficult part – as it was always going to be – is: how does Tsipras now respond? And will those responses secure Greece in the euro, or set it on a path to exit?"

No one really knows the answer. Amid increasing rancour in Syriza and bitter complaints of “murderous”, “disgraceful” and “shameful” measures being imposed on Greeks from Brussels, there can be no certainty at all that Tsipras would be able to hold the movement together in government.

There had been talk of a referendum on any new arrangement, essentially an in/out choice on euro membership. Now there is talk of another election.

It was always the case that any eventual arrangement between the prime minister and creditors would have to run the Syriza gauntlet.

Reports of dismay, fury and resistance to “full surrender” among government MPs present the prospect of an election – and all the uncertainty that would bring. Tsipras is accused by the opposition New Democracy, which he supplanted in the January election, of undergoing a humiliating “Waterloo” on Wednesday night in Brussels.

Hard talk

The prime minister is to address parliament in Athens this evening.

After months of indecision and fiery rhetoric, the decisive phase now seems upon us.

The basic assumption remains that enough of a fudge will be conjured up so all protagonists can say they got something. But no one has got anything yet.

Hard talk over the size of the Greek primary surplus, which is the budget surplus before debt servicing costs, comes amid indications that the country’s creditors are still seeking pension cuts and VAT increases.

Such measures are anathema in the world of Syriza.

A “wildcard” suggestion doing the rounds is that Tsipras goes into an election or a referendum calling for the rejection of the creditor proposal.

Stability seems as far away as ever.