Congested bus lanes, mistimed traffic lights, unreliable services. Travelling to work by bus can be a slog, a stressful slog.
The average speed of a Dublin Bus is 16.6km/h during morning rush hour and 15.7km/h during the evening, which is about 5km/h slower than an elite marathon runner but not out of kilter with bus speeds in other major cities.
Average figures, however, mask the experience of many bus commuters.
On some of the city’s more congested arteries, buses can be reduced to speeds of below 3km/hr, slower than walking pace.
Democratic frontrunner in New York’s mayoral race Zohran Mamdani has tapped into frustration with the city’s bus service (and frustration with the city’s high cost of living) by pledging to make buses, across the entire network, free to ride.
The economic benefit from free fares would be twice the estimated $700 million (€605 million) annual cost, he claims.
[ These five factors are how Zohran Mamdani took New York by stormOpens in new window ]
Mamdani also insists that the move would speed up bus times. There would be no more fumbling for money or cards at the stops while the zero cost would encourage more drivers to leave their vehicles at home, declogging routes and speeding up commute times in a kind of virtuous circle.
Critics say such a gigantic policy shift would imperil the entire service as the cost would forbid investment in the network and dent the revenue garnered from congestion charges ($500 million a year).
Mamdani’s proposal isn’t new. Former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg also proposed free buses when he ran for a third term in 2009 but the plan was never materialised.
The city’s authorities also recently piloted a scheme that made five bus lines free. A review of the pilot found that while significantly more people took the bus, travel times did not improve.
Nonetheless, his proposal has reignited the debate about providing free transport and whether the boost to the economy would be worth it. The latter is hard to measure.
A recent study by the National Transport Authority (NTA) here put the cost of providing free public transport – removing all public transport fares on all services nationally – at up to €550 million a year, with an additional €140 million in capital expenditure required for new buses to prevent overcrowding.
Studies show, however, that free bus routes are more likely to attract walkers and cyclists (short-journey commuters) than motorists, who are less motivated by cost and more by faster journey times.
Unless the free fare option guarantees swifter journey times, many drivers will stay behind the wheel.
The deficit in transport services combined with the already congested nature of Dublin’s commuter belt means the free bus option might not result in an instant sea change in behaviour that proponents would like.
“The concept of free buses has been trialed in many countries, with varying levels of success,” says Brian Caulfield, professor at the department of civil, structural and environmental engineering in Trinity College Dublin.
He believes the money would be better spent on extending Luas lines and delivering new urban rail services in our regional cities.
“The modal shift” occurs when you make public transport faster than private transport, Caulfield says.
“It’s as simple as a carrot and a stick ... the carrot being, make public transport better, the stick being if motorists aren’t moving over, there is some sort of road-user charge.”
Caulfield says we’re still “decades away” from congestion charges in Dublin (analogous to those in London) because the public transport systems aren’t good enough to justify penalising motorists.
“If 20 per cent of people stopped driving in the morning, we wouldn’t have the public transport seats to accommodate the shift,” he says.
In terms of buses, he believes the proposed 12 BusConnect corridors for the capital could be a real game-changer.
[ Children aged eight and below now eligible for free public transportOpens in new window ]
Dublin Bus hopes the high-speed, unimpeded routes will provide faster and more consistent commutes. Dublin Bus estimates passenger numbers will rise by 58 per cent with faster travel times.
Construction on the first corridor, a 9.2km route from Liffey Valley to Dublin city centre (at a cost of €274 million), has already commenced. The 12 corridors are due to be operational by 2030.
The so-called “Vienna model” is something that many economists here would like Dublin to emulate.
Public transport use in the Austrian capital shot up when the authorities there introduced an annual season ticket – costing €1 day/€365 a year – for unlimited use of the underground, tram and bus systems. The price is due to rise to €467 from next year.
Whether or not Mamdani’s free bus idea (part of his “make America more affordable again” campaign) comes to fruition (the state’s centrist governor Kathy Hochul is likely to resist), the proposal appears to be resonating with voters if the polls are anything to go by.
And while other US cities have tested free bus services, none have been close to the size and scale of New York, making it something of test case.
