The hype around Ireland’s vast amount of potential offshore renewable energy and ambition to become an energy exporting country needed a hard reality check.
It has come in a series of reports to the Government from the National Economic & Social Council on what fulfilling that national aspiration entails beyond supporting policy.
Repeated political declarations of wanting to scale up renewable electricity – 40 gigawatts plus, many times current power demand – were too easily trotted out by governments getting uneasy about the climate threat on our doorstep and multibillion euro fines becoming more likely no matter how you divide up the carbon cake.
The first report published in April concluded Ireland’s transition to a clean energy economy risks heading into “strategic fog” with a lack of clarity and certainty about future reliability of the country’s energy supply.
RM Block
The second and third were published on Wednesday. The former concluded that cost-competitiveness challenges left unaddressed would make it impossible for the State to become a renewables exporter.
The issue is summed up by the observation that with “approximately 50 per cent of Ireland’s electricity produced from gas-fired power plants, [it] made Irish electricity prices the most exposed in Europe to resulting regional gas market volatility”.
[ Scrapped Amazon plant a sign of Ireland hitting the infrastructural buffersOpens in new window ]
There is increasing vulnerability from “fossil fuel import dependency”, while our subsea gas pipelines and power interconnectors could become the target of malign actors.
The latter underlines the need for anticipation of needs and likely demand with an inevitable supply chain crunch, not helped by profound upheaval in global trade, over-reliance on China and lack of EU manufacturing capacity.
The international supply chain for wind technologies highlights our exposure to emerging bottlenecks with turbine components; critical raw materials, offshore substations and installation vessels. Meanwhile, ports are not fit for purpose – not to mention planning and permitting procedures.
These reports are not killing the dream of energy independence; a shift away from the most expensive electricity in Europe and an end to price volatility. They chart a way through the minefields.
In particular, “Ireland’s energy strategy must adapt to the reality that strategic trade dependencies will not cease but will instead take new forms”, whether it’s buying our renewables or co-operating on enhanced grid connectivity.
Furthermore, risk of geopolitical tensions affecting key oil and gas “transit chokepoints” is increasing. It threatens the security of our energy supply, especially with reliance on gas supplies from the UK and crude oil from the US – after the putative tariff agreement between Trump and the EU this week, American LNG can be added to that list.
The case for getting off fossil fuels couldn’t be clearer, and the NESC reports are grounds for conditional optimism. With more than ample offshore resources and the correct strategic approach, we can become a clean energy exporter.
Notwithstanding current uncertainties and high costs, Ireland could break into an international green hydrogen market, generating the fuel using offshore wind, provided strategic partnerships are formed with countries requiring large quantities of the fuel.
It can also help form a low-carbon energy reserve and act as a back-up for data centres.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin this week convened a meeting of industry leaders and Government officials to address the challenge of accelerating offshore wind delivery. He knows there is a growing risk of Ireland falling behind in the energy transition and implications this has for the country as a place to do business amid a data/AI revolution.
We must acknowledge the challenges honestly, he underlined, and “work together to expedite the development of a sector that will be central to Ireland’s economic and energy future”.
He is establishing a clearinghouse within his office to drive accountability and break logjams – with more details due to be announced in the Autumn.
These NESC reports and on-the-ground know-how can help deliver the required push-through.
