Concerns about the state of the economy in the coming months have risen sharply since the beginning of the year among businesses on the island of Ireland, but especially in retail and construction, according to a new survey.
The InterTrade Ireland poll found that 32 per cent of retail businesses admit to growing anxiety during the first three months of the year, compared with just 15 per cent in the last quarter of 2024.
Nerves have worsened, too, in construction, with 24 per cent now concerned, compared with 13 per cent in Q4 of 2024, while 23 per cent of manufacturing firms have concerns, up from 9 per cent, “likely reflecting cost pressures and market volatility”.
One in eight construction firms are seeing orders contract, up by nearly two-thirds in just months, while fewer are seeing their sales grow. Concern is also growing about late payments.
By comparison, however, hospitality, hotel, leisure and catering businesses across the island are less worried, having risen from 10 per cent to 14 per cent, but it “still points to growing unease”, InterTrade reports.
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Though hospitality “is rebounding”, with both growth and staffing numbers up, sentiment about the future is “softening”, said InterTrade Ireland, the all-island enterprise support agency.
Of all sectors, professional services – accounting, consulting and so on – are the calmest, with just a single percentage point of increase in their concern about the business climate in coming months.
Describing the headline figures across all questions as “broadly positive”, Newry-based InterTrade Ireland said “a closer look reveals a more complex and uneven economic landscape”.
“Ireland continues to post strong headline growth, largely driven by exports, but domestic demand is softening amid rising global uncertainty,” it said, adding that Northern Ireland “remains relatively resilient”, outperforming the United Kingdom average.
Businesses on both parts of the island are facing “historically tight” labour markets, but “early signs of softening” are appearing. Unemployment in the Republic is steady at 4 per cent, but in Northern Ireland it is “just 1.8 per cent, one of the lowest on record”.
However, subtle shifts are appearing in both parts of the island, with an increasing number of people not being economically activity – an issue that Northern Ireland has struggled with for decades.
Unprompted, just under 40 per cent complained that too many new workers have “a different attitude to work”, while a similar number complain that students are not leaving colleges with the skills they need.
