It’s probably just as well that Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien is on holiday. The last 24 hours has brought no good news for the Government on the housing front.
Data from the Central Statistics Office indicates that prices have jumped by 8.6 per cent across the State – and by more than that in Dublin. The median price of a property across the State is now €337,500, rising as high as €631,000 in Dún Laoghaire Rathdown.
An analysis by Davy sees little end to the pain for aspiring housebuyers. Real growth in household incomes, high rents and expected further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank mean that “demand fundamentals remain strong”. That’s broker-speak for “expect prices to rise further”.
Davy has already waved the white flag on its full-year forecast for a 7.5 per cent rise in prices across the whole of 2024. While housing supply tends to be skewed to the second half of the year, the market is unlikely to come anywhere close to the slowdown required to hit that target.
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A study by estate agents Savills says that housing affordability in Ireland has worsened more dramatically than in any of eight other “high income economies” it studied – the US, UK, Australia, Canada, Germany, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands – between 2015 and 2022.
It said baldly that, even though many countries are experiencing housing crises, the shortage of housing in Ireland is on a different scale.
And Pat Davitt, the chief executive of the Institute of Professional Auctioneers & Valuers says that despite recent investment in housing, there remains a lack of homes, new or second-hand, especially in price brackets for those on average wages.
“Those on high salaries, of which there are many, and buyers who do not need mortgage finance are very prevalent in the market,” he said.
But those folk are always okay. Unless Mr O’Brien and his Government colleagues can find a way of making home ownership attainable for the wider market, turbulent times lie ahead politically.
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