A few years ago Irish politics collapsed into a singularity: housing. The Government’s struggles to preside over a more equitable housing system and Sinn Féin’s withering assessment became the primary contest.
We assumed the upcoming general election would be won and lost on a single issue (it may still be) and that the Coalition was in a race against time to make progress or face annihilation. But there is another political current that is appropriating the same amount of bandwidth, one that is as discomfiting for Sinn Féin as it is for Government: immigration.
It has shifted the zone of anti-establishment politics away from Sinn Féin and the Left and placed it somewhere else entirely, partly with newly formed community action groups, some with legitimate grievances about resources, and partly with underground groups and individuals, some with the aim of spreading disinformation and ratcheting up tensions.
The sight of Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, somebody who has never held a government post, being jostled and harangued by protesters tells you there’s something different in the body politic.
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The spate of arson attacks on refugee accommodation up and down the country – there have been at least 10 in the past 12 months – similarly dispels the cosy notion that we’re not an anti-immigrant country because of our own long history of migration.
An attempted attack on a disused convent in Co Longford intended to house Ukrainian refugees was the latest incident. It followed an arson attack on the disused Shipwright pub in Ringsend, Dublin, after it was falsely linked to asylum seekers. Two weeks before that, Ross Lake House hotel in Rosscahill, Galway, which had been earmarked for asylum seekers, was largely destroyed by a fire. During the riots in the capital in November, two premises previously used to house asylum seekers were attacked.
[ Could immigration replace housing as the big issue of the next election?Opens in new window ]
Speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland earlier this month, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar refused to accept that the political climate in Ireland has changed in response to the upsurge in immigration, when it’s obvious that it has.
Varadkar suggested concern about immigration has been building for several years. “Some of that is understandable and [involves] legitimate concerns, that shouldn’t be dismissed ... in somes cases it’s not, in some cases, there’s an element of racism to it, quite frankly,” he said.
Either way, the State’s interface with the most divisive political question on the planet has begun.
The Government’s plan to channel Ukrainian refugees away from an already strained housing system and into a network of local hotels and community centres has been a battle but is now likely to stabilise on the back of a fall-off in arrivals driven by the Government’s decision to pare back the State’s accommodation and social welfare offering.
In contrast, the asylum seeker system is said to be creaking at the seams. Minister for Integration Roderic O’Gorman confirmed to The Irish Times Inside Politics podcast that the State would continue to see 13,000-15,000 arrivals this year, a level that the system can’t handle, said insiders.
The Government’s new plan for larger accommodation centres in as yet unspecified locations is likely to prove controversial on the basis of what we’re seeing in Roscrea and other towns.
As immigration moves more centre-stage in Irish politics, mainstream parties are subtly revising their policy positions in tandem with the shifting public mood.
McDonald’s suggestion that Ukrainians not working in “critical jobs” should not be automatically entitled to stay in the State when the EU temporary protection directive expires next year has been seen as a hardening of Sinn Féin’s stance. The Government has yet to announce its position on the future status of Ukranian refugees.
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At a press conference on housing last week, Varadkar hailed the benefits of immigration, noting that half a million people, who were not born in the State, will pay income tax this month. He said, however, that the State had a rules-based system “which is fair and welcoming to those who come here legally but firm with those who come here illegally or who seek to abuse the generosity [of it] “.
A key economic question is whether immigration depresses wages or adds to productivity. People tend to come down on one side or the other and often for cultural reasons. Globalisation and the increased immigration that has gone with it have been linked to increasing levels of inequality in western countries. Donald Trump in the US campaigns largely on these grievances, perceived or otherwise.
Modern economies, however, tend to create a lot of low-paying service jobs, which would seem to be the chief driver of inequality.
European politics has been transformed by immigration. The German government, which in the middle of the last decade agreed to take in one million Syrian and Iraqi refugees, has entirely revamped its immigration policy, recently agreeing a cross-party deal to curb illegal migration, reduce social benefits for migrants, speed up deportations, and explore the possibility of setting up asylum processing centres outside the EU.
The sea change hasn’t been as abrupt here, at least not yet.
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