Currency locking to create trading monolith

When the 11 countries lock their currencies together on January 1st next they will create the world's greatest trading power, …

When the 11 countries lock their currencies together on January 1st next they will create the world's greatest trading power, a report for Eurostat said yesterday.

Last year the GDP of the 11 came to some (£4320 billion, 18 per cent of world GDP, and half way between the US (£5341 billion) and Japan (£2895 billion). But the 11 export 25 per cent more than the US and twice as much as Japan.

The single currency block will have the largest population of the three at 291 million, compared to 269 million in the US and 126 million in Japan.

Overall growth last year among the 11 was 2.5 per cent compared to 3.8 per cent in the US and 0.9 per cent in Japan.

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Agriculture in the 11 represents only 1.8 per cent of the group's GDP, while services amount to over two-thirds.

At the end of 1997 the government deficit of the 11 was running at some £379 per person while the collective debt represented some 74 per cent of GDP - or £11,137 a head.

Although substantial, the stock market of the 11 will be the smallest of the three with a stock market capitalisation of £2,425 billion, with Germany, France and Italy representing some 60 per cent of that value.

Last year the 11 accounted for 20 per cent of world exports, the US 16 per cent and Japan 10 per cent, while the biggest importer was the US (19 per cent) followed by the 11 (16 per cent) and Japan (7 per cent).

The 11 had a trade balance in surplus of £70 billion while the US recorded a £142 billion deficit.

Average unemployment in the 11 at the end of 1997 was 11.5 per cent compared with 4.7 per cent in the US and 3.5 per cent in Japan.

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth

Patrick Smyth is former Europe editor of The Irish Times