Housing commencements, the strongest indicator of future supply, surged to almost 18,000 in April, a post-crash record, according to Goodbody Stockbrokers.
The company’s analysis of the Building Control Management System indicated that there were 17,600 residential units commenced last month. That raises the total for the 12 months to April to more than 50,000.
It also brought the total for the first four months of 2024 to 29,600 homes, up 198 per cent on the same period last year.
“All regions of the country have seen between a doubling and quadrupling of housing starts this year,” Goodbody chief economist Dermot O’Leary said.
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The positive momentum was linked to the current development levy waiver and the water connection charge rebate. In April last year the Government introduced a temporary development contributions waiver and the refunding of Uisce Éireann water and waste water connection charges in a bid to reduce housing costs and boost supply.
It recently announced an extension of the levy waiver to the end of December and the water charges rebate to the end of September.
“As we flagged last month the originally proposed end of the waiver on development contributions and rebate on water charges has triggered this surge in commencement activity by the building industry,” O’Leary said, noting the extensions were not known until very close to the initially proposed end date.
“Therefore, builders effectively had a free option to issue the commencement notice on a site to ensure they took advantage of the incentive,” he said.
The brokerage said the figures took total housing starts for the 12 months to April to 52,500, comprising 25,000 housing estate homes, 22,000 apartments and 6,000 one-off properties.
While Goodbody said this was above the 50,000 per annum target (for completions) expected to be adopted by Government in the coming months, it did not expect these commencements to translate into 50,000 annual completions.
“It appears that there was little downside for builders to issue commencement notices, but it remains to be seen what proportion will indeed be built out,” he said. “Under the terms of the waiver and rebate the units have to be completed by the end of 2026, so the lag between commencement and completion may be elongated.”
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