US Election

US election polls: Kamala Harris holds 46%-43% lead over Donald Trump, poll shows

Survey shows that voters have a dim view of the economy and immigration

Voters cast their ballots during early voting for the US presidential election and other races in Black Mountain, North Carolina. Photograph: Erik S Lesser/EPA
Voters cast their ballots during early voting for the US presidential election and other races in Black Mountain, North Carolina. Photograph: Erik S Lesser/EPA
Tue Oct 22 2024 - 13:10

US vice president Kamala Harris holds a marginal 46 per cent to 43 per cent lead over Donald Trump in the presidential race, with a pessimistic electorate saying the country is on the wrong track, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll has found.

The lead held by Ms Harris – the Democratic candidate – in the six-day poll, which closed on Monday, differed little from her 45 per cent to 42 per cent advantage over her Republican rival Mr Trump in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted a week earlier, reinforcing the view that the contest is extraordinarily tight with just two weeks left before the November 5th election.

Both polls show Ms Harris with a lead within the margin of error, with the latest poll showing her ahead by just 2 percentage points when using unrounded figures.

The new poll shows that voters have a dim view of the state of the economy and immigration – and they generally favour Mr Trump’s approach on these issues.

READ SOME MORE

Some 70 per cent of registered voters in the poll said their cost of living was on the wrong track, while 60 per cent said the economy was heading in the wrong direction and 65 per cent said the same of immigration policy.

Voters also said the economy and immigration, together with threats to democracy, were the country’s most important problems. Asked which candidate had the better approach on the issues, Mr Trump led on the economy – 46 per cent to 38 per cent – and on immigration by 48 per cent to 35 per cent.

Immigration also ranked as the top issue when respondents were asked what the next president should focus on most in their first 100 days in office. Some 35 per cent picked immigration, with 11 per cent citing income inequality and equal 10 per cent shares citing healthcare and taxes.

But Mr Trump fared poorly on the question of which candidate was better to address political extremism and threats to democracy, with Ms Harris leading 42 per cent to 35 per cent. She also led on abortion policy and on healthcare policy.

Ms Harris’s lead over Mr Trump might not be enough to win the election even if it holds until November 5th.

[ US election explained: How does the electoral college work? ]

National surveys, including Reuters/Ipsos polls, give important signals on the views of the electorate, but the state-by-state results of the electoral college determine the winner, with seven battleground states likely to be decisive. Mr Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, triumphing in the electoral college even though she won the national popular vote by 2 points.

Polls have shown Ms Harris and Mr Trump are neck and neck in those battleground states.

The latest poll gives signs that voters – particularly Democrats – might be more enthused about this year’s election than they were ahead of the November 2020 presidential election when Joe Biden defeated Mr Trump.

Some 79 per cent of registered voters in the poll – including 87 per cent of Democrats and 84 per cent of Republicans – said they were “completely certain” they would cast a ballot in the presidential election. The share of sure-to-vote poll respondents was up from 74 per cent in a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted in October 2020, when 74 per cent of Democrats and 79 per cent of Republicans said they were certain to cast ballots.

The new poll had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

Ms Harris entered the race in July after Mr Biden ended his re-election effort following a poor debate performance against Mr Trump in June. Mr Trump at the time was widely seen as the front-runner, partly based on his perceived strength on the economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden administration, which has eased in recent months.

Given the close match, the candidates’ efforts to ensure that their supporters actually cast ballots will likely be key in determining the winner. Just two-thirds of US adults voted in the November 2020 election, which was the highest turnout in over a century, according to estimates by the US Census Bureau and the Pew Research Center.

Roughly one-third of registered voters are Democrats and one-third Republican, with the balance independents or those who favour third parties, according to an estimate by Pew Research.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 4,129 US adults online, nationwide, including 3,481 registered voters. Some 3,307 of the respondents were considered the most likely to turn out on election day. Among these likely voters, Ms Harris held a 3-percentage-point lead over Mr Trump, 48 per cent to 45 per cent. – Reuters