In the run-up to Christmas a small group of Labour MPs and party power brokers held a seasonal gathering at a restaurant in west London.
On the menu was vigorous debate about Keir Starmer, the Labour Party leader and UK prime minister. The verdict on his future? He doesn’t have one, they all agreed.
The Labour figures at the gathering debated two scenarios: either the deeply unpopular Starmer is forced out as early as January, or he goes in May after devolved parliamentary elections in Wales and Scotland where polls suggest Labour faces defeat.
Yet it could be council elections due in London on the same day that prove the crucial factor. If Labour’s electoral base in the capital is eroded from the right by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, and by the Zack Polanski-led Greens from the left, Starmer will not survive.
RM Block
What was also argued by those at the seasonal gathering was that Starmer, who led Labour to a landslide election win just 18 months ago, would probably try to fight off any challenge. “He’ll have to be taken out of Downing Street in a box,” said one.
Farage’s populist nationalist party Reform overtook Labour in opinion polls in February. Since then, it has consolidated its lead at an average of 9 or 10 points ahead of Labour in most surveys. The Greens are also now only five or six points behind Starmer’s party.
Meanwhile, Westminster remains awash with speculation about a potential heave to challenge his leadership.
Any contender needs the nomination of about 80 Labour MPs. Starmer, if he chose to fight on, would be automatically on the ballot. Labour MPs would whittle it down to a final pairing before the party’s 250,000 members chose the winner in a head-to-head.
Starmer's Labour in disarray as the UK's divisions deepen
Wise old party heads, however, counsel that if Starmer has to go, there should be a coronation and not a contest. They say voters would harshly judge Labour for turning in on itself for an internal battle while the nation struggled, as they did the Tories in 2024.
Starmer still insists he is going nowhere, but the rumours will not subside. Who are the main runners and riders in Labour’s leadership stakes?
Wes Streeting
Starmer’s dwindling band of allies and his Downing Street team see the UK’s health secretary Streeting (42) as the biggest threat.
He is a strong media performer and is viewed as being as articulate and smooth as Starmer is stilted. He is on the right of the Labour Party but he has genuine working class credentials – an East End London boy who made it to Cambridge University.
His status as a Christian gay man also gives his personal backstory added depth. He is openly ambitious and has never denied that he wants the job of prime minister one day.
In early November, allies of Starmer fired a warning shot across Streeting’s bows with a flurry of briefings to British media, accusing the health secretary of openly plotting. They said a challenge would be “reckless” for the party and country.
Streeting immediately came out to deny he had been involved in any coup: “Nor did I shoot JFK, I don’t know where Lord Lucan is, [and] had nothing to do with Shergar.”
It was a memorable line, mostly because he had used the exact same phrase a year beforehand, when he deployed it in defence of Starmer’s then-embattled chief of staff, Sue Gray. Despite his denials at that time of any strife, Gray was gone within weeks.
In November, Streeting angrily denounced the Downing Street allies of Starmer who had been briefing against him. The warning operation blew up in their faces and the prime minister called his health secretary to apologise.
Streeting is still believed to be “on manoeuvres”, however.
His path to Downing Street would not be obstacle-free, should Starmer choose to bow out or be forced from office. Streeting is not especially popular with Labour Party grassroots members, who would choose the winner in any contest.
A recent Survation survey for LabourList ranked him as only the 12th most popular member of the UK cabinet. That is lowly for a Labour health secretary who has spent heavily on Britain’s cherished National Health Service.
Angela Rayner (45)
The former deputy prime minister and housing secretary’s career looked to be in tatters in September when she quit after it emerged she had had underpaid stamp duty on a flat. But she never went away, you know.
Rayner, a standard bearer of the soft-left Labour tradition, rose from impoverished north-of-England beginnings to become one of the most recognised political figures in Britain. It was an unlikely journey from teenage pregnancy and a job as a carer to striding the corridors of power via the murky world of trade union politics.
Rayner, with her sassy attitude and shock of red hair, was the no-nonsense poster girl for British social mobility. Charismatic “Angie” was also a good foil for the stodgier Starmer. In recent weeks he has spoken of wanting to bring her back to cabinet. But if Rayner gets her way, she will be picking the cabinet, not just returning to it.
It is an open secret in Westminster that Rayner has been discussing launching a bid for the leadership and she is said to have already offered several potential allies roles in her cabinet. Rayner’s allies are adamant that if Streeting runs, she will take him on.
The health secretary is said to be anxious about facing her as she is far more popular with the grassroots members who would have the final say. If she ended up in a contest with Starmer, LabourList’s research also suggests she would beat him.
The possibility of a dream-team ticket where Rayner and Streeting join forces, with him as prime minister and her possibly returning as deputy, has been touted by the health secretary’s backers. It would unite Labour’s right and left. So far Rayner has resisted.
Old heads in Labour, however, counsel that if senior figures in the party decide a coronation is the way to go, Rayner could be targeted if she refused to make way for Streeting. Scrutiny of her personal life has always been intense.
Like Streeting, however, she faces another issue: her parliamentary seat is vulnerable: hers to Reform, and Streeting’s wafer-thin majority to a challenge from the left.
One way or another, Rayner’s full story has yet to be written.
Andy Burnham
The mayor of Greater Manchester and former MP consistently denies he covets a return to Westminster. “Rubbish,” says Burnham (55). But few people in London are buying it.
The self-styled King of the North has won three terms as the powerful mayor of Britain’s third-biggest city, which is thriving under his leadership. He is a proponent of the soft-left Labour tradition.
He has been deftly critical recently of the leadership of Starmer – it is known that the two men are not close.
Burnham was blamed for an attempt to destabilise Starmer in September in the run-up to the party’s conference in Liverpool, but he fumbled it and the prime minister rebuffed the challenge and emerged stronger.
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But speculation over Burnham’s intentions remain. LabourList’s research shows he would beat Starmer in a head-to-head, while Ipsos polling shows he would also be preferred as prime minister over Farage by the country as a whole.
He faces a major obstacle, however, in that he is not an MP – you cannot run for the Labour leadership if you do not hold a Westminster seat.
There is speculation that Burnham could fight a byelection if the currently suspended Manchester MP Andy Gwynne gives up his seat, although the Starmer-controlled National Executive Committee of the party could theoretically stop him from running. Reform UK would also be a serious challenge in any byelection.
If Starmer quits too early for him, Burnham’s ambitions may go unfulfilled. But if Starmer limps on and Burnham can find a way back to parliament before May, he has a chance. He is not universally popular among his colleagues in Westminster, however.
Outside bets
Former leader Ed Miliband (55) is, by far, the most popular cabinet member among Labour members. But he already lost an election, in 2015 to David Cameron, and Farage would relish facing him in a battle.
Shabana Mahmood (45), the home secretary, has shown herself to be a ruthless operator as she takes on the difficult challenge of slashing immigration and fixing Britain’s dysfunctional asylum system. Her seat in Birmingham is vulnerable, however.
Darren Jones, chief secretary to the prime minister, has had a precipitous political rise in recent years. He could emerge as a compromise candidate acceptable to several different factions. The next leadership battle may come too soon for him, however. He would also be a strong contender for chancellor.
