The possibility of an attack to stop Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb is being talked about openly in Israel, amid the fear that the recent dramatic events in the region, which led to the collapse of Iran’s regional “axis of resistance”, will prompt Tehran to cross the nuclear threshold to protect the regime.
Israel Katz, soon after he became defence minister last month, said the diplomatic, operational and tactical situation for attacking Iran’s nuclear programme has never been more realistic or likely.
Katz, speaking before the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, noted how two previous Israeli strikes on Iran this year – in response to ballistic missile attacks by Tehran on Israel, in April and October – made it clear how superior the Israeli air force is to even the most advanced aspects of the Islamic republic’s air defence systems.
“There is an opportunity to achieve the most important goal – to thwart and remove the threat of destruction hanging over Israel. Today, there is a broad national and defence establishment consensus that we need to thwart the Iranian nuclear programme, and there is an understanding that this is achievable – not only on the security front, but also on the diplomatic front,” he said.
Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid called for the air force to strike Iran’s nuclear sites in October.
Foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar said “the most important question by far, for the future of this region, for the security of Israel, is to avoid Iran getting a nuclear weapon”.
He said the issue has been top of the agenda in talks between prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and US president-elect Donald Trump.
“President Trump made it clear during the time of his electoral campaign that he understands very well the dangers of that nuclear Iranian project,” said Sa’ar. “I’m sure that we will be able to work together to stabilise the region, in order to guarantee the future of the region.”
“Anything could happen,” Trump said in an interview with Time magazine, noting the possibility that the US could go to war with Iran, partly because Tehran had plotted to assassinate him. “It’s a very explosive situation.”
Trump’s transition team is formulating what it calls a “Maximum Pressure 2.0″ strategy against the Iranian regime, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. While his first administration focused on harsh economic sanctions against Iran, his second could involve military measures, including the possibility of strikes on nuclear facilities.
One approach, as described by two sources familiar with the plan, involves increasing military pressure by deploying additional US forces, fighter jets and ships to the Middle East. The US may also sell advanced weapons to Israel, including bunker-buster bombs that would enhance its capability to disable Iranian nuclear facilities.
Changes in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, as well as the expectations of the incoming Trump administration, have created an unparalleled opportunity for Israel’s leaders to consider such a scenario. A significant element of Iran’s air defences have been destroyed, flight paths to Iran have been cleared and, most importantly, the Iranian threat of a counterattack from Lebanon, Syria and Iran itself have diminished significantly.
Destroying the Iranian nuclear programme with a military operation could provide Netanyahu with the “total victory” he has been talking about during the last 14 months of war. In 2011, together with then defence minister Ehud Barak, he threatened to attack Iran but ultimately backed down, blaming opposition from Israel’s defence establishment and the Obama administration.
After Trump decided to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) nuclear deal with Iran in 2018, and especially since 2020, Tehran has reportedly accelerated the pace of its nuclear development and has been considered a nuclear threshold state for at least the last two years.
Iran has repeatedly claimed that it has no interest in acquiring nuclear weapons.
According to international reports, Iran has already amassed enough enriched uranium to make several bombs.
Last week France, Germany and Britain, signatories to the original JCPOA in 2015, informed the UN security council they were prepared, “if necessary”, to initiate the so-called “snapback” mechanism, that would reactivate all the international sanctions imposed on Iran before the nuclear deal.
After reports said Tehran significantly increased its supply of uranium that has been enriched to 60 per cent, and that it may be within reach of 90 per cent enrichment, Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency that it would agree to stricter oversight at its Fordow site, where most of the enrichment takes place.
The scope and location of the inspections that Iran will allow remains unclear, but the decision to permit inspections indicates that Tehran hopes the move will thwart any plans to attack its nuclear sites.
In the meantime, it seems to be hoping to reach agreements with the Trump team, fearing that the incoming president will impose crippling sanctions aimed at hurting the Iranian economy even further and possibly precipitating the collapse of the regime.
- Listen to our Inside Politics Podcast for the latest analysis and chat
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Find The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date