A billionaire admirer of US president Donald Trump is expected to win the Czech Republic’s parliamentary elections but then face difficulty forming a government, in a process that the European Union and Ukraine will watch with trepidation.
The populist Ano party of tycoon Andrej Babis is leading polls in advance of voting on Friday and Saturday, on pledges to cut taxes and living costs and raise pensions and to end Prague’s role in co-ordinating international purchases of artillery shells for Ukraine.
Babis (71) is not as friendly towards Russia as Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban or Slovakian premier Robert Fico, but Ukraine could not rely on him for strong support and his victory would strengthen those in the region who rail against the EU and are hostile to immigration and environmental policies.
Babis showed his willingness to work with the far right when he formed the Eurosceptic Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament last year with Mr Orban and hardline nationalists from several countries.
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Czech moderates, including the governing centre-right Spolu alliance that is expected to come second in the election, warn that Babis may turn to extreme right- or left-wing parties to build a ruling majority, given that polls suggest that Ano will win with about 30 per cent of votes but only secure about 63 of the 200 seats in parliament.
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Babis refuses to work with communists who are part of the far-left Stacilo! (Enough!) alliance, so is likely to turn to the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) that is polling in third place with about 13 per cent, and the populist Motorists party.
Surveys show that Stacilo and the Motorists might not take the five per cent of votes needed to enter parliament however, adding to the unpredictability of the ballot and raising Spolu’s hopes of retaining power in alliance with the Mayors and Independents (Stan) and the Pirates party, which are both centrist, pro-EU groups.
Polls put Spolu on about 20 per cent, Stan on 12 per cent and the Pirates on 10 per cent.
Ano has pledged to rebalance government policy to focus on the welfare of Czechs, while fending off allegations from Spolu that it would undermine Prague’s relations with the EU and Nato and abandon Ukraine in favour of a softer line on Russia.
Since last year, a programme known as the Czech ammunition initiative has delivered an estimated 2.5 million shells to Ukraine, by matching stocks available on the world market with Nato states that are willing to buy them on Kyiv’s behalf.
Without providing evidence to back up its claims, Ano has portrayed the scheme as murky, wasteful and potentially corrupt. Mr Babis has called it “rotten” and said the co-ordination effort should be transferred from Prague to Nato, while insisting that he would have no problem with the Czech arms industry selling weapons to Ukraine.
“We don’t have money for our people here, our programme is for our people, we are not in Ukraine here but in the Czech Republic,” Mr Babis said in a televised debate on Wednesday night with prime minister Petr Fiala.
A key role after the ballot could be played by Czech president Petr Pavel, a former top Nato general who beat Babis in the 2023 presidential elections.
He will nominate the next prime minister and has said he will only countenance a government that supports the EU and Nato and “will not leave us at the mercy of Russia and its efforts to regain its sphere of influence in central and eastern Europe.”
